Most of Europe sides against Russia in the war in Ukraine.
0.853167
Relative Brier Score
24
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 24 | 24 | 30 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 10 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 10 | 10 | 11 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
99%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The war could end, or European opinion could soften toward Russia (but I doubt it).
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
Yes
95%
No
Why do you think you're right?
The leaders of both countries are way too stubborn for a deal to happen
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Yer tellin' me there's a chance - Lloyd Christmas
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
64%
(0%)
Yes
36%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Oct 23, 2025 02:23PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
8%
(0%)
Yes
Jul 23, 2025 to Jan 23, 2027
92%
(0%)
No
Jul 23, 2025 to Jan 23, 2027
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
(0%)
Moldova
1%
(0%)
Armenia
8%
(0%)
Georgia
2%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
8%
(0%)
Yes
92%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
28%
(0%)
Togo
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Coup d'etats don't really happen crazy often, and 6 months is a short time.
Why might you be wrong?
Parts of Africa an be volatile, especially the countries in and around the Sahel region. Anything is possible.