Ceasefire seems highly unlikely.
0.198542
Relative Brier Score
24
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 24 | 24 | 37 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 15 | 15 | 16 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 11 | 11 | 15 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-6%)
Yes
99%
(+6%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I was wrong. I thought the likelihood was higher.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(-5%)
Yes
98%
(+5%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Ceasefire seems highly unlikely.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I was wrong. I had the likelihood too high.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
23%
(-5%)
Less than or equal to 500
26%
(-7%)
Between 501 and 750, inclusive
23%
(+3%)
Between 751 and 1000, inclusive
17%
(+9%)
Between 1001 and 1250, inclusive
11%
(0%)
More than or equal to 1251
Why do you think you're right?
I updated a little toward the crowd.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I most definitely might be wrong.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Aug 31, 2025 08:40PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Jul 31, 2025 to Jan 31, 2026
99%
(0%)
No
Jul 31, 2025 to Jan 31, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
11%
(0%)
Togo
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Badge
Star Commenter - May 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
7%
Yes
93%
No
Why do you think you're right?
I put the same 7% as in the LNG question since ceasefire could be reached.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Puting is a warmonger.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
I think Elon Musk might make a comeback and tell Trump to fuck with OpenAI, resolving the criteria.
Why might you be wrong?
I just think the prediction market is too sure about the result.