Confirmed previous forecast
0.618462
Relative Brier Score
30
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 30 | 30 | 30 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 25 | 25 | 25 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 21 | 21 | 21 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will hostilities between Pakistan and India result in at least 100 total uniformed casualties (with at least one death) between 2 June 2025 and 30 September 2025?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
8%
(0%)
Yes
92%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(0%)
Less than 250
18%
(0%)
Between 250 and 349, inclusive
41%
(0%)
Between 350 and 449, inclusive
28%
(0%)
Between 450 and 549, inclusive
9%
(0%)
More than or equal to 550
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(-5%)
Yes
90%
(+5%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Updating for time elapsed.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Administration reportedly considering troop deployment to Mexico, may withdraw some from South Korea to maintain balance.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
70%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 1
25%
(0%)
Between 2 and 3, inclusive
4%
(0%)
Between 4 and 5, inclusive
1%
(0%)
More than or equal to 6
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(-19%)
Less than 600
14%
(0%)
Between 600 and 629, inclusive
25%
(-5%)
Between 630 and 659, inclusive
28%
(+12%)
Between 660 and 689, inclusive
28%
(+12%)
More than or equal to 690
Why do you think you're right?
Updating for time elapsed.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
1.5 weeks still left to go.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 1349
8%
(0%)
Between 1350 and 1499, inclusive
16%
(0%)
Between 1500 and 1649, inclusive
32%
(0%)
Between 1650 and 1799, inclusive
39%
(0%)
More than or equal to 1800
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 500
7%
(0%)
Between 501 and 750, inclusive
36%
(0%)
Between 751 and 1000, inclusive
45%
(0%)
Between 1001 and 1250, inclusive
10%
(0%)
More than or equal to 1251
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(-5%)
Yes
96%
(+5%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Updating for time elapsed.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Same reasons as before.
Files
New Badge
Star Commenter - Jul 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).