raframrod1410

Despite modest growth (from 19.4% in 2020 to 21.2% in 2024), structural and political challenges in the WANA region limit the pace of trade integration. No major policy shift suggests a leap to 24% is likely within 2 years.

Since early 2025, U.S. military aid to Ukraine has stagnated under the Trump administration, while Europe has continued its contributions at a relatively steady pace. This divergence has widened the existing gap in total allocations. Europe already surpassed the U.S. in total aid as of early 2025 and is now on track to outpace the U.S. in cumulative military aid by year-end. The consistency of European support-combined with increased domestic resistance to aid in the U.S.- supports a forecast where Europe ends up providing significantly or slightly more than the

U.S. between January 2022 and December 2025.

Russia has repeatedly demonstrated its willingness to target critical infrastructure through cyber means, especially during periods of heightened geopolitical tension. While most attacks have remained non-kinetic, the complexity of operational technology (OT) systems in energy and transportation sectors increases the chances that a cyberattack could unintentionally result in physical damage or casualties. The longer the Ukraine war drags on and NATO support intensifies, the more likely Russia may seek to escalate or retaliate through asymmetric methods. A 28% probability reflects the possibility of deliberate or accidental escalation in this volatile environment.