Strategic reorientation toward China deterrence could justify repositioning forces from South Korea to other Indo-Pacific locations like Guam
1.625937
Relative Brier Score
29
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 29 | 29 | 29 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 29 | 29 | 29 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 24 | 24 | 24 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
Yes
98%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The Pentagon has explicitly denied reports of planned troop reductions, and South Korea has confirmed no formal discussions are taking place
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
83%
Less than or equal to 1
15%
Between 2 and 3, inclusive
2%
Between 4 and 5, inclusive
0%
More than or equal to 6
Why do you think you're right?
Historical base rates strongly support this range, with forecasters noting that 61% of years historically produce zero major hurricane landfalls and approximately 90% of years since 1995 have had 0-1 major hurricane landfalls during June-September. As of August 2025, no major hurricanes have made landfall yet, significantly increasing the probability for this range given the limited time remaining
Files
Why might you be wrong?
4 years since 1995 (2004, 2005, 2017, 2024) have seen 2-3 major hurricane landfalls during June-September, representing about 13% of years
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
Yes
98%
No
Why do you think you're right?
The May 2025 conflict demonstrated both countries' capability for rapid escalation to 100+ casualties within days, establishing a critical precedent for such escalation
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Historical base rate analysis shows only 4-5 conflicts reaching 100+ uniformed casualties in ~80 years, yielding approximately 1.5-6% annual probability, much lower for a 4-month period
Files
New Badge
Star Commenter - Jul 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
Less than 2.3%
16%
More than or equal to 2.3% but less than 2.6%
65%
More than or equal to 2.6% but less than 2.9%
14%
More than or equal to 2.9% but less than 3.2%
3%
More than or equal to 3.2%
Why do you think you're right?
Cleveland Fed nowcast predictions clustering around 2.7-2.8% support this central range. June's 2.7% reading providing momentum toward this range with base effects and continued monthly gains
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Tariff effects beginning to materialize in supply chains with companies starting to pass costs to consumers.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
7%
(-18%)
Yes
93%
(+18%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
July historically experiences the strongest seasonal travel surge, with normal increases from May to July ranging from 4.7-5.6 million travelers based on 2022-2024 data.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Since February 2025, monthly inbound traveler numbers have consistently been 0.7-1.9 million below corresponding 2024 levels, with the trend accelerating rather than improving.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
99%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Without a major and rapid market disruption, it’s highly unlikely that the July 2025 EIA-reported price will meet or exceed $3.600. If anything, the forecasted trend is flat or declining from the May 2025 level.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
A sudden geopolitical crisis (e.g., Persian Gulf conflict, shipping disruptions) could occur. OPEC+ production cuts or unanticipated global supply shock.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(-2%)
Yes
98%
(+2%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Both sides have massively militarized the border since 2020, deploying 50,000-60,000 troops each and creating monthly patrol encounters in disputed areas, increasing the mathematical probability of miscalculation over time.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The October 2024 border agreement between China and India represents genuine diplomatic progress with successful implementation of disengagement from friction points, demonstrating effective protocols for conflict management.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
As of September 2, 2025, there have been a total of 1,431 confirmed measles cases reported in the United States.
Why might you be wrong?
School resumption in August/September could trigger increased transmission among unvaccinated populations