Confirmed previous forecast
0.499309
Relative Brier Score
98
Forecasts
8
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 98 | 98 | 98 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 83 | 83 | 83 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 24 | 24 | 24 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
(0%)
Yes
Oct 1, 2025 to Apr 1, 2027
95%
(0%)
No
Oct 1, 2025 to Apr 1, 2027
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Nov 1, 2025 03:02PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
3%
(0%)
Yes
Oct 1, 2025 to Apr 1, 2026
97%
(0%)
No
Oct 1, 2025 to Apr 1, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Nov 1, 2025 03:01PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
(0%)
Yes
Oct 1, 2025 to Apr 1, 2026
98%
(0%)
No
Oct 1, 2025 to Apr 1, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Badge
Star Commenter - Sep 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
(+1%)
Less than or equal to 1
0%
(-1%)
Between 2 and 3, inclusive
0%
(0%)
Between 4 and 5, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 6
Why do you think you're right?
At 8 days out, there is essentially no chance that two storms can form and make landfall by September 30.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
There are two disturbances being tracked, but they are not expected to reach land in 7 days, and are also not likely to become cat 3 or bigger.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-1%)
Yes
99%
(+1%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Resolution is close with no major developments.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
It only takes one bad day
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-3%)
Yes
100%
(+3%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
With one week left, there is no sign of a big shift.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The current policy environment is marked by sudden announcements.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 1349
1%
(-9%)
Between 1350 and 1499, inclusive
99%
(+10%)
Between 1500 and 1649, inclusive
0%
(-1%)
Between 1650 and 1799, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 1800
Why do you think you're right?
Two cycles to go, it would be quite extraordinary to get 8 or fewer new cases. New cases have been slowing, but not by that much. That should put us over the 1500 line.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Diseases and disease reporting can shift quickly when numbers are this small.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
99%
(+5%)
Less than or equal to 1
1%
(-5%)
Between 2 and 3, inclusive
0%
(0%)
Between 4 and 5, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 6
Why do you think you're right?
Resolution is coming and no landfalls yet. The weather for the rest of the period is nearly forecastable now and the current storm is not expected to make landfall. Two 3+ storms making landfall in the remaining period, given that we know quite a bit about the next 7 days or so, is extremely unlikely.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Two storms in rapid succession has happened.
Files