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adjuvant

About:

I am a policy generalist that studies and models complex systems.

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Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
Oct 01, 2025 02:45PM UTC Will the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of India and the People's Republic of China engage in a lethal confrontation by 30 September 2025? 0.000475
Oct 01, 2025 02:45PM UTC How many measles cases in the U.S. will be reported by the CDC between 1 January 2025 and 30 September 2025? -0.03536
Oct 01, 2025 02:45PM UTC How many incidents of political violence will occur in Gaza in August 2025? -0.021391
Oct 01, 2025 02:45PM UTC How many major hurricanes (Category 3 or above) will make landfall in the continental United States between 1 June 2025 and 30 September 2025? -0.024239
Oct 01, 2025 02:45PM UTC How many incidents of political violence will there be in Mexico in August 2025? 0.01959
Oct 01, 2025 02:45PM UTC Will hostilities between Pakistan and India result in at least 100 total uniformed casualties (with at least one death) between 2 June 2025 and 30 September 2025? 0.003638
Oct 01, 2025 02:45PM UTC According to U.S. Customs and Border Protection, will there be at least 37 million inbound travelers to the U.S. in July 2025? 0.122525
Oct 01, 2025 02:45PM UTC By 30 September 2025, will the United States announce its intent to withdraw at least 4,500 troops from South Korea? 0.008796
Oct 01, 2025 02:45PM UTC According to U.S. Customs and Border Protection, will the U.S. seize at least 50,000 pounds of drugs in July 2025? -0.052381
Sep 06, 2025 12:56AM UTC How many global victims of data-leaking ransomware will there be in August 2025, according to Data Breaches Digest? 0.038613
Aug 12, 2025 03:00PM UTC What will the U.S. annual inflation rate be in July 2025? 0.040878
Aug 08, 2025 04:00PM UTC Will the number of acres burned by wildfires in the United States in July 2025 exceed 1,283,147 acres? 0.121526
Aug 01, 2025 09:00PM UTC Will U.S. President Donald Trump’s approval rating be greater than 45% on 1 August 2025? 0.020696
Aug 01, 2025 04:01AM UTC Will all NATO members agree to a defense spending target of 5% of GDP by 31 July 2025? -0.022004
Aug 01, 2025 04:01AM UTC Will the U.S. national average gas price be equal to or above $3.600 for July 2025? 0.012694
Aug 01, 2025 04:01AM UTC Will the United States and Iran announce a new nuclear deal before 1 August 2025? 0.002212
Jul 24, 2025 04:00PM UTC Will the share of battery-electric vehicles among new registered cars in the EU exceed 20% by the second quarter of 2025? 0.001636
Jul 04, 2025 05:00PM UTC Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jun 4, 2025 and Jul 4, 2025) 0.00177
Jul 01, 2025 04:01AM UTC Will the U.S. Congress pass a budget reconciliation bill before 1 July 2025? -0.002031
Jun 28, 2025 08:00PM UTC Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between May 28, 2025 and Jun 28, 2025) 0.0048
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