mabforecasting

 Year-to-date average is around 15.%.

 Procedural blocks alongside conservative protests in both chambers

Cuomo has a solid base but limited growth potential; Mamdani could surge from behind thanks to progressive second-choice support. Unless Cuomo pulls significantly ahead in the first two rounds, he’s unlikely to clinch it in five rounds or fewer.

There has been a drop in flight bookings compared to 2024 and economic uncertainties in other countries (e.g., related to tariffs) may deter travelers.

The significant border agreement and renewed dialogue between India and China indicate a strong desire to de-escalate tensions and maintain peace along the border. While there may still be minor skirmishes, the focus on stability and cooperation suggests a low likelihood of a lethal confrontation.

While there are some polls showing approval ratings above 45%, the overall trend from multiple sources indicates a significant portion of the electorate disapproves of his performance. This mixed data suggests that while there’s potential for improvement, it’s more likely that his approval will remain below 45%.

The Senate is working on its own version of the bill, which means negotiations will be necessary to reconcile differences with the House-passed version. This added complexity, along with the potential for political maneuvering, makes it less likely that the bill will be finalized by July 1.

I believe the probabilities reflect the current market conditions accurately. With the national average at $3.177 and forecasts suggesting prices will stay below $3.50 throughout 2025, it seems highly unlikely that we'll see prices spike to $3.60 or higher in July. Historical data also shows that prices were significantly higher in previous years, but current trends indicate a more stable market.