There was an upswing and there are now 1350 cases. It would take 35 cases a week to get up above 1500, so almost all of my probability weight is on the second category.
0.592528
Relative Brier Score
51
Forecasts
2
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 51 | 51 | 51 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 50 | 50 | 50 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 15 | 15 | 15 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-17%)
Less than or equal to 1349
91%
(+16%)
Between 1350 and 1499, inclusive
9%
(+4%)
Between 1500 and 1649, inclusive
0%
(-3%)
Between 1650 and 1799, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 1800
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Kids are returning from school. A big spike is possible, hence a small probability weight on the third category
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(-1%)
Yes
98%
(+1%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
More time has elapsed without the event occurring
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Same as before
Files
New Badge
New Badge
Star Commenter - Jul 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
17%
(-8%)
Less than or equal to 1349
75%
(+14%)
Between 1350 and 1499, inclusive
5%
(-2%)
Between 1500 and 1649, inclusive
3%
(-2%)
Between 1650 and 1799, inclusive
0%
(-2%)
More than or equal to 1800
Why do you think you're right?
The number last week was 5, so now its just a couple cases a week to meet 1349.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Same reasons as before
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
Less than 250
5%
Between 250 and 349, inclusive
18%
Between 350 and 449, inclusive
58%
Between 450 and 549, inclusive
17%
More than or equal to 550
Why do you think you're right?
The number of victims has been steadily increasing. There does not appear to be much seasonality, with August typically just somewhat higher than June and July. However there were 479 in June 2025 suggesting at least that many in August, and 549 would be a very high number historically so that seems unlikely as well. The bulk of the distribution is therefore on the 450-549 category
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I have not studied the data collection criteria closely and have not assembled a full time series from the data, I've just done spot checks of months. Its possibly there is more volatility than I've assumed.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
100%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Gas prices are down significantly from July 2024. July is 3/4 over and prices are hovering around where they were last month. Even a massive spike likely wouldn't be enough to pull the price up above $3.60 for the month.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Anything is technically possible but the probability of being wrong here is under 0.5%
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-4%)
Yes
99%
(+4%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
There are only 6 days left.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I have given this an incredibly low probability, it could be higher
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Numbers from the end of July suggest the lower two categories are very improbable and Netanyahu is talking about a big military offensive
Why might you be wrong?
Some kind of ceasefire could still happen