I think the US still wants to maintain a military presence there and given other current instabilities they might delay this decision.
2.295799
Relative Brier Score
23
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 23 | 23 | 23 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 24 | 24 | 24 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 20 | 20 | 20 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Badge
Star Commenter - Jun 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
Yes
80%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Perhaps the administration will in fact want to pull back our military from other nations, esp given we might be spending more resources in the Middle East.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(-55%)
Yes
90%
(+55%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
updating forest as July 1 nears
Files
Why might you be wrong?
could possibly still happen though very unlikely
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
Yes
70%
No
Why do you think you're right?
there does not appear to be strong evidence that all members will agree that 5% is a big jump
Files
Why might you be wrong?
they could all agree partially due to recent events in Russia/Ukraine, Iran/Israel, etc.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
Yes
80%
No
Why do you think you're right?
it is unlikely because even in the last 3 years the numbers were typically lower than 37k, and this summer seems less favorable to travelers due to the government actions making tourists less interested in traveling to the US.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Perhaps travelers still want to visit the US even with politics the way they are.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
60%
Yes
40%
No
Why do you think you're right?
there is a greater than 50% probability that the weight will be 50k or greater, but it is close to 50/50. This is based on comparing July to prior months in other years, and also comparing 2025 to prior years in terms of data observed so far.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
there is quite a bit of fluctuation across months and years without a clear trend.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
Less than 600
10%
Between 600 and 629, inclusive
39%
Between 630 and 659, inclusive
33%
Between 660 and 689, inclusive
15%
More than or equal to 690
Why do you think you're right?
Basing my forecast on historical rates and esp those in recent months.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
there could be a political event that causes more violence than typical.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
(-20%)
Yes
80%
(+20%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
updating forecast because I now understand the question better (I was voting on whether he would win, not whether he would win in 5 rounds)
Files
Why might you be wrong?
It is certainly possibly that he could win in 5 rounds or less
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
40%
Yes
60%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Cuomo and Mamdani are basically tied at this point, and the energy around Mamdani seems more likely to propel him forward.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Cuomo could easily win, given the polling at this point, which suggests a tie.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
recent months have been high in terms of numbers of victims and there is no reason to think it will slow down
Why might you be wrong?
there is definitely fluctuation randomly so it could be a low month