With the recent conflict, and Israels seemingly unwillingness to progress diplomatic efforts, this seems unlikely, however I can also see both the US and Iran being anxious to reinstate the JCPOA or something similar
-0.294462
Relative Brier Score
7
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
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New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
Yes
80%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
both countries could be much more adversarial now and be beyond the point of diplomacy for the time being
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
7%
Less than 600
13%
Between 600 and 629, inclusive
37%
Between 630 and 659, inclusive
40%
Between 660 and 689, inclusive
3%
More than or equal to 690
Why do you think you're right?
This follows the general trend of violence in Mexcio as of recently
Files
Why might you be wrong?
With increased political tensions between Mexico and the US, tensions could be higher than what is being forecasted
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
Less than 250
8%
Between 250 and 349, inclusive
23%
Between 350 and 449, inclusive
42%
Between 450 and 549, inclusive
22%
More than or equal to 550
Why do you think you're right?
Breaches seem to be on the rise, so I would expect there to be an increase
Files
Why might you be wrong?
if there are more crackdowns targeting data breaches and hackers, it could lower the numbers
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
Yes
80%
No
Why do you think you're right?
With the administrations increasingly hostile attitude towards immigration, travelers may be less inclined to come visit. Additionally, with the recent conflict with the middle east, less people might feel safe traveling.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
It seems as though tourism is generally on the rise globally
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
75%
Yes
25%
No
Why do you think you're right?
This has been a priority for the administration, and recent trends show that it's likely
Files
Why might you be wrong?
There aren't super strong trends from past summers to suggest it will be over the estimate
Files
Why do you think you're right?
With increased tensions in the indo pacific, it is unlikely that the US will withdraw strategic basing of American troop in the region. especially unlikely to happen so soon
Why might you be wrong?
If this is already something the president is talking about he may have more immediate plans to act on it