Confirmed previous forecast
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Relative Brier Score
0
Forecasts
0
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Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 95 | 95 | 95 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 99 | 99 | 99 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 29 | 29 | 29 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 27 | 27 | 27 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will Egypt experience an economic collapse (as defined by any of the listed scenarios) in the next 12 months?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
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New Badge
Power Forecaster - Sep 2025
Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.
New Badge
Star Commenter - Sep 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-1%)
Yes
100%
(+1%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Only 4 days left, less than 1%
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Why might you be wrong?
.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-1%)
Yes
100%
(+1%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Only 3 days left, less than 1% chance now.
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Why might you be wrong?
.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-1%)
Yes
100%
(+1%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Only 4 days left, less than 1% chance now.
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Why might you be wrong?
.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
0%
(0%)
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
0%
(-5%)
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
15%
(0%)
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
85%
(+5%)
Not before 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Time has passed, adjusting for that.
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Why might you be wrong?
.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than 62%
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 62% but less than 66%
50%
(0%)
More than or equal to 66% but less than 70%
50%
(0%)
More than or equal to 70% but less than 74%
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 74%
Confirmed previous forecast
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Aware of the Q2 data that were released a few days ago? https://www.randforecastinginitiative.org/comments/199541 Just checking...
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Less than or equal to 4,499
15%
Between 4,500 and 4,999, inclusive
70%
Between 5,000 and 5,499, inclusive
15%
Between 5,500 and 5,999, inclusive
0%
More than or equal to 6,000
Why do you think you're right?
2026-2030 is five years inclusive of PhD grads in microbiology and immunology. 2021-23 average is 1050, so five years is 5250. Ph.D.s overall grew 5% 2018-2023 and 4.5% 2103-2018, biology PhDs by 9% and 1% over same periods. Also 61% of all PhDs are U.S. citizens/green cards, 72% of bio PhDs. Table 1.6 of resolution source. Assuming 5% growth, you roughly get 5500 from 5250 as a base rate.
Microbiology & immunology is a mature category of bio PhDs, clocking in at 10% of the field. While bio remains a hot scientific topic, not clear how much microbe & immunology benefits. President Trump has proposed 40% cuts to NIH funding, but Congress is not leaning that way with no resolution of FY26 budget as of Sept 2025. https://www.brookings.edu/articles/nih-funding-and-local-employment/
The above matches with a bell curve across the 5 intervals. Starting there, we have full year to find out if Trump really reduces NIH spending or if status quo holds.
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Why might you be wrong?
Wildcards are US government funding of research and dissuasion of foreign students due to visa crackdowns and politics. Within the bio field, the 10% microbiology & immunology field could become hotter or colder -- both in itself but also the competing degrees like bioinformatics might draw candidates away.
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