Confirmed previous forecast
0.817251
Relative Brier Score
95
Forecasts
27
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 95 | 95 | 95 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 99 | 99 | 99 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 29 | 29 | 29 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 27 | 27 | 27 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Quickfire Forecasts,
Geopolitical Security,
Russia-Ukraine War,
Emerging Technology,
Forecaster Submissions
Most Active Topics:
Emerging Tech - AI,
Economic Debt,
Russia-Europe,
Biotech
New Prediction
Will Egypt experience an economic collapse (as defined by any of the listed scenarios) in the next 12 months?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Files
New Badge
Power Forecaster - Sep 2025
Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.
New Badge
Star Commenter - Sep 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-1%)
Yes
100%
(+1%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Only 4 days left, less than 1%
Files
Why might you be wrong?
.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-1%)
Yes
100%
(+1%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Only 3 days left, less than 1% chance now.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-1%)
Yes
100%
(+1%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Only 4 days left, less than 1% chance now.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
0%
(0%)
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
0%
(-5%)
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
15%
(0%)
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
85%
(+5%)
Not before 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Time has passed, adjusting for that.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than 62%
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 62% but less than 66%
50%
(0%)
More than or equal to 66% but less than 70%
50%
(0%)
More than or equal to 70% but less than 74%
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 74%
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Aware of the Q2 data that were released a few days ago? https://www.randforecastinginitiative.org/comments/199541 Just checking...
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Less than or equal to 4,499
15%
Between 4,500 and 4,999, inclusive
70%
Between 5,000 and 5,499, inclusive
15%
Between 5,500 and 5,999, inclusive
0%
More than or equal to 6,000
Why do you think you're right?
2026-2030 is five years inclusive of PhD grads in microbiology and immunology. 2021-23 average is 1050, so five years is 5250. Ph.D.s overall grew 5% 2018-2023 and 4.5% 2103-2018, biology PhDs by 9% and 1% over same periods. Also 61% of all PhDs are U.S. citizens/green cards, 72% of bio PhDs. Table 1.6 of resolution source. Assuming 5% growth, you roughly get 5500 from 5250 as a base rate.
Microbiology & immunology is a mature category of bio PhDs, clocking in at 10% of the field. While bio remains a hot scientific topic, not clear how much microbe & immunology benefits. President Trump has proposed 40% cuts to NIH funding, but Congress is not leaning that way with no resolution of FY26 budget as of Sept 2025. https://www.brookings.edu/articles/nih-funding-and-local-employment/
The above matches with a bell curve across the 5 intervals. Starting there, we have full year to find out if Trump really reduces NIH spending or if status quo holds.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Wildcards are US government funding of research and dissuasion of foreign students due to visa crackdowns and politics. Within the bio field, the 10% microbiology & immunology field could become hotter or colder -- both in itself but also the competing degrees like bioinformatics might draw candidates away.
Files