previous quarters and time remaining + crowd
0.541142
Relative Brier Score
37
Forecasts
4
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 21 | 26 | 345 | 317 | 1633 |
| Comments | 4 | 8 | 208 | 189 | 847 |
| Questions Forecasted | 21 | 25 | 83 | 72 | 325 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 2 | 14 | 12 | 124 |
| Definitions | |||||
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New Badge
Star Commenter - Nov 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
100%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
This quarter did see quite some very cold days where people needed more gas
100% is always kind of risky
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
19
0%
18
1%
17
99%
16 or fewer
Why do you think you're right?
Currently: 15, Italy could bring count up to 16 but I expect non of the other countries will.
- Italy: there is a chance https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/italy-recognise-palestine-only-if-hamas-excluded-all-hostages-freed-2025-09-23/
- Germany: no https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/germany-won-t-support-recognition-of-palestinian-statehood-chancellor-merz-says/3669410
- US: no
- South Korea: I expect will follow US - found no news concerning plans to recognize palestine
- Japan: follows US https://www.nippon.com/en/in-depth/d01183/
Files
Why might you be wrong?
South Korea / Japan could surprise?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
6%
(-9%)
Yes
94%
(+9%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
lowering for time left
Files
Why might you be wrong?
talks between Nvidia and Trump going South e.g on https://laist.com/brief/news/trump-says-nvidia-will-hand-the-us-15-of-its-h20-chip-sales-to-china
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Estonia
1%
(0%)
Latvia
1%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Moldova
1%
(0%)
Armenia
5%
(0%)
Georgia
1%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
85%
(0%)
Less than 30 days
7%
(0%)
30 days
2%
(0%)
31-60 days
2%
(0%)
61-90 days
4%
(0%)
91 days or more
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why do you think you're right?
https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2025/11/28/rsf-military-push-for-kordofan-leaves-sudan-at-risk-of-partition
They want to go there, they have momentum form el-Fasher but timeline is very short
Why might you be wrong?
change in tactic of either side leading to faster capturing of cities by RSF