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New Prediction
Will Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces retake control over Khartoum city by 31 March 2026?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
90%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
Iván Cepeda
25%
Sergio Fajardo
25%
Abelardo de la Espriella
20%
Other
Why do you think you're right?
Cepeda is the leading candidate as of early-January 2026. But the recent US arrest of Maduro and the President's comments about current Columbian President Petro will scramble the race.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Things to watch: Do fellow conservative Valencia and Espriella form a common right-wing front, does the US back a conservative candidate, how much traction do independents like Fajardo and Lopex gain (and do they form an alliance)?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
90%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
25%
Yes
75%
No
Why do you think you're right?
JNIM's economic jihad against Bamako aims to strangle the city from receiving critical goods, especially imports. JNIM also wants to deny the Goita regime international support and investment. The goal is to provoke a government collapse or civil uprising, rather than seizing the city militarily. This seems a better match to JNIM's current capabilities of a few thousand fighters (at most) deployed on major highways about 70 km from Bamako, vice massing for attack.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Goita is dependent on about 2000 Russian mercenaries to bolster the regime. If the Russians were to pull out--due to occasional serious casualties (at least five Russians killed in a 3 Jan ambush), because Bamako can no longer pay the Russian troops, or a more lucrative mercenary opportunity emerges in another country--it could spark the collapse of the Malian military and give JNIM a clear path into Bamako.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
90%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
25%
(-15%)
Yes
75%
(+15%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
I am lowering my probability that such an arrangement will occur. The stall in making progress towards a Gaza stabilization force, continued settler activity in the West Bank, and Washington's growing focus on the Western Hemisphere will likely slow MENA states from coalescing around a common threat.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Widespread civil violence in Iran that threatens to spill over borders could prompt MENA states to arrange a common security mechanism.
Files
New Badge
New Badge
Star Commenter - Dec 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
Yes
85%
No
Why do you think you're right?
The March 8 Alliance will win the vast majority of Shia seats in the new Lebanese parliament, but Hizballah's diminished political, military, financial, and leadership capabilities will create an opening for a non-Alliance Shia candidate to win at least one of the 27 designated Shia seats.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Hizballah's remaining paramilitary forces remain potent, and the group could use this capability to drive any non-Alliance candidates from competing for any of the designated Shia seats.
Files