RAND Forecasting Initiative

How many of the 19 G20 member countries will have recognized the State of Palestine before 1 Feb 2026?

Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(10 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 15, 2025 03:46PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
19	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
18	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
17	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
16 or fewer	100%	100%	+0%	+0%

Will the FDA have authorized a medical device that incorporates LLM-based functionality by 31 March 2026?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 15, 2025 03:46PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	10%	3%	+7%	+0%
No	90%	97%	-7%	+0%

Will the United States government implement new or expanded export controls or restrictions explicitly targeting frontier AI model development by 31 July 2026?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 15, 2025 03:46PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	30%	15%	+15%	+3%
No	70%	85%	-15%	-3%

Will any country announce a new national carbon tax or emissions trading system by 31 July 2026?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 15, 2025 03:47PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	70%	61%	+9%	-1%
No	30%	39%	-9%	+1%

Will at least two European NATO members sign new, publicly announced major defense procurement contracts (over €1 billion each) with non-European suppliers by 31 July 2026?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 15, 2025 03:53PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	80%	83%	-3%	+1%
No	20%	17%	+3%	-1%

Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 16, 2025 03:21PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	30%	16%	+14%	-1%
No	70%	84%	-14%	+1%

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 18, 2025 06:25PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Estonia	5%	3%	+2%	+0%
Latvia	3%	2%	+1%	+0%
Lithuania	3%	2%	+1%	+0%

Will China, Russia, the U.S., or the EU publicly announce new economic or trade sanctions that specifically target a state-owned oil or gas entity in Egypt, Jordan, or the United Arab Emirates (UAE) by 30 June 2026?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 18, 2025 06:25PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	2%	+3%	+0%
No	95%	98%	-3%	+0%

Will China's year-over-year GDP growth rate for Q2 2026 equal or exceed 5.0%, according to the National Bureau of Statistics of China?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 29, 2025 05:59PM UTC
(24 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	70%	31%	+39%	-13%
No	30%	69%	-39%	+13%

Will the United Nations deploy peacekeeping forces to a conflict zone in a new country or territory by 31 July 2026?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 29, 2025 06:08PM UTC
(24 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	15%	2%	+13%	-1%
No	85%	98%	-13%	+1%

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