Forecasted Questions
Will any branch of the U.S. military have hypersonic weapons operationally deployed with field units, aboard naval vessels, or on aircraft by 30 April 2026?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
May 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
May 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 29, 2025 06:22PM UTC
(24 days ago)
Dec 29, 2025 06:22PM UTC
(24 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 10% | 44% | -34% | -23% |
| No | 90% | 56% | +34% | +23% |
Will the Houthis (Ansarallah movement) attack a commercial shipping vessel on the Red Sea between 19 December 2025 and 31 July 2026, inclusive?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 30, 2025 05:52PM UTC
(23 days ago)
Dec 30, 2025 05:52PM UTC
(23 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 75% | 75% | +0% | +7% |
| No | 25% | 25% | +0% | -7% |
Will Hezbollah and its March 8 coalition allies win a majority of seats in the 2026 Lebanese Parliamentary elections?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Jun 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 30, 2025 06:14PM UTC
(23 days ago)
Dec 30, 2025 06:14PM UTC
(23 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 30% | 30% | +0% | -2% |
| No | 70% | 70% | +0% | +2% |
Will Hezbollah and/or Amal Movement candidates maintain control of all Shia-majority seats in the 2026 Lebanese Parliament?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Jun 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 30, 2025 06:22PM UTC
(23 days ago)
Dec 30, 2025 06:22PM UTC
(23 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 15% | 73% | -58% | -3% |
| No | 85% | 27% | +58% | +3% |
Will a new multilateral security agreement involving at least three Middle East and North Africa (MENA) states (excluding Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Israel) be publicly announced by 30 June 2026?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 05, 2026 09:03PM UTC
(17 days ago)
Jan 05, 2026 09:03PM UTC
(17 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 25% | 5% | +20% | -2% |
| No | 75% | 95% | -20% | +2% |
Will Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) take control of Bamako, Mali by 1 June 2026?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jun 02, 2026 03:59AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Jun 02, 2026 03:59AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 06, 2026 06:22PM UTC
(16 days ago)
Jan 06, 2026 06:22PM UTC
(16 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 25% | 6% | +19% | +0% |
| No | 75% | 94% | -19% | +0% |
Will a U.S. or U.S.-ally satellite be permanently disabled by another country or organization before 1 January 2027?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 06, 2026 06:22PM UTC
(16 days ago)
Jan 06, 2026 06:22PM UTC
(16 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 10% | 7% | +3% | +0% |
| No | 90% | 93% | -3% | +0% |
Who will win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Jun 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 06, 2026 06:32PM UTC
(16 days ago)
Jan 06, 2026 06:32PM UTC
(16 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iván Cepeda | 30% | 36% | -6% | +0% |
| Sergio Fajardo | 25% | 9% | +16% | -2% |
| Abelardo de la Espriella | 25% | 46% | -21% | +1% |
| Other | 20% | 9% | +11% | +1% |
Will Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces retake control over Khartoum city by 31 March 2026?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 21, 2026 04:44PM UTC
(20 hours ago)
Jan 21, 2026 04:44PM UTC
(20 hours ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 10% | 1% | +9% | +0% |
| No | 90% | 99% | -9% | +0% |