Review Question

Space has increasingly become a contested domain as major powers develop sophisticated anti-satellite (ASAT) capabilities targeting both military and civilian satellites. Russia, China, India, and the United States have all demonstrated kinetic ASAT capabilities by destroying their own satellites in tests, while Russia has allegedly begun developing a nuclear space-based anti-satellite weapon that could disable hundreds of satellites in a wide area using through radiation effects or electromagnetic pulse (Wikipedia, CSIS). U.S. Space Force officials have stated that American satellites face daily “reversible” attacks (i.e., attacks that don’t cause permanent damage) from adversaries, including electronic jamming, laser blinding, cyber attacks, and close approaches by other satellites (TWZ). While ASAT systems have not yet been utilized to permanently disable an adversary's satellite, the proliferation of these capabilities and increasing geopolitical tensions have made their potential use more likely.

For the purposes of this question:

• “Permanently disabled” means that the satellite is rendered inoperable and cannot carry out any of its intended mission. Both kinetic (e.g., collision or physical destruction) and non-kinetic (e.g., cyberattacks) will count. If on 1 January 2027, it is unclear whether an attack has left a satellite permanently disabled, the attack will not be sufficient for resolution. 
• “U.S. allies” refers to NATO members, countries designated as Major Non-NATO Allies by the United States, and Taiwan.

The following will not be sufficient for resolution:  

• Satellites disabled during military exercises or testing activities by the satellite’s owner 
• Technical malfunctions, failing components, or end-of-life decommissioning
• Temporary disruptions that are later restored
• Damage that allows the satellite to continue functioning in some capacity
• Collisions with space debris or other satellites not intentionally directed at the satellite

This question was inspired by a suggestion submitted by RFI user Willard in the RFI Question Lab.