Confirmed previous forecast
0.736009
Relative Brier Score
38
Forecasts
4
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 20 | 1 | 38 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 20 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 14 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Future Bowl,
Mission: AI Advancement,
Cybersecurity
New Prediction
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
4%
(0%)
Estonia
3%
(0%)
Latvia
1%
(0%)
Lithuania
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
13%
Yes
87%
No
Why do you think you're right?
legislation is slowing us down ATM
Files
Why might you be wrong?
AI is developing quite rapidly
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
25%
(-15%)
U.S. Entity
60%
(0%)
Non-U.S. Entity
Why do you think you're right?
This is a probably no situation: The estimated frontier threshold (10²⁶-10²⁷) is being discussed, so it’s plausible we’ll cross it — and before mid-2027 is possible given current trajectories.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
“U.S. or non-U.S. entity” is broad — so it simply means someone, somewhere, not necessarily a U.S. lab. That raises the probability somewhat, since it doesn’t restrict geo.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
40%
(0%)
U.S. Entity
60%
(0%)
Non-U.S. Entity
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
14%
(0%)
Yes
86%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
27%
(0%)
Less than 30 days
0%
(0%)
30 days
9%
(0%)
31-60 days
0%
(0%)
61-90 days
64%
(0%)
91 days or more
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(0%)
Estonia
3%
(0%)
Latvia
1%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files