Confirmed previous forecast
0.3149
Relative Brier Score
61
Forecasts
2
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 1 | 12 | 9 | 61 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 17 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Geopolitical Security,
Artificial Intelligence,
U.S.-China ,
Russia-Ukraine War,
Emerging Technology
Most Active Topics:
Semiconductor Supply Chain,
Iran Nuclear Program,
semiconductors,
China Lithography
New Prediction
Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 1, 2025 to May 1, 2026
99%
(0%)
No
Nov 1, 2025 to May 1, 2026
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Nov 1, 2025 12:04AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Oct 1, 2025 to Apr 1, 2026
99%
(0%)
No
Oct 1, 2025 to Apr 1, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Sep 1, 2025 03:35AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Aug 1, 2025 to Feb 1, 2026
99%
(0%)
No
Aug 1, 2025 to Feb 1, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jul 30, 2025 03:01PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Jun 30, 2025 to Dec 30, 2025
99%
(0%)
No
Jun 30, 2025 to Dec 30, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jun 29, 2025 07:24PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
May 29, 2025 to Nov 29, 2025
99%
(0%)
No
May 29, 2025 to Nov 29, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Leaving 1% but this is really unlikely.
Files