yes
0.631378
Relative Brier Score
10
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 10 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 6 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Geopolitical Security,
Russia-Ukraine War,
Emerging Technology
Most Active Topics:
Russian Disinformation,
Africa,
Iran Nuclear Program
New Badge
Top Forecaster - Jun 2025
Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard in a month.
New Prediction
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Apr 30, 2025 08:49PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
50%
Yes
Jan 31, 2025 to Jan 31, 2026
50%
No
Jan 31, 2025 to Jan 31, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
yes
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 59
19%
(0%)
Between 60 and 69, inclusive
42%
(0%)
Between 70 and 79, inclusive
35%
(0%)
Between 80 and 89, inclusive
4%
(0%)
More than or equal to 90
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
(0%)
Yes
70%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
37%
(0%)
Togo
45%
(0%)
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Less than or equal to 59
19%
Between 60 and 69, inclusive
42%
Between 70 and 79, inclusive
35%
Between 80 and 89, inclusive
4%
More than or equal to 90
Because
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Bc I’m right
Why might you be wrong?
Bc I’m right