125th
Accuracy Rank

JonathanMann

Jonathan Mann
About:

I'm a Security Architect in the financial sector and adjunct faculty for the computer science department in the engineering school at NYU. Previously, I worked as a Data Science Product Manager in the anti-cyber crime space and on Wall Street as a Data Scientist before that. My research is focused on novel applications for public key cryptography and training small-scale LLMs. I'm a Superforecaster, a Professional for RAND’s INFER forecasting platform, and a member of Samotsvety.

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2021 Season Stats

-0.00245

Relative Brier Score

5

Forecasts

0

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 
Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 0 17 190 196 939
Comments 0 15 157 162 336
Questions Forecasted 0 16 40 40 130
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 4 44 46 194
 Definitions
New Badge
JonathanMann earned a new badge:

Star Commenter - Dec 2025

Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?
JonathanMann made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
8% (+1%)
Yes
Dec 27, 2025 to Jun 27, 2026
92% (-1%)
No
Dec 27, 2025 to Jun 27, 2026
Why do you think you're right?

I'll move a little bit higher and toward the base rate from the crowd after news of the new North Korean submarine. I'll move higher if there are reports of an imminent test, but I haven't read anything. US intelligence has given false positives on this before, so I think it's likely warnings to come before tests.

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Why might you be wrong?

The base rates are still higher than me and much higher than the crowd.

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Load more comments
JonathanMann made a comment:
@michal_dubrawski  - I've made a marginal update. I think the main reason it moves me up is that they're not keeping this submarine a secret. If North Korea is interested making a show of strength, it might make nuclear tests ever so slightly more likely.  
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New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

I'll start off low, but a little higher than the crowd as I don't know enough to be confidently lower. As per recent comments, it seems progress is not being made fast enough for this to happen within the resolution time of this question. 

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Why might you be wrong?

I'm higher than the crowd as I think a lot can change rapidly during fighting. 

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New Prediction
Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months?
JonathanMann made their 4th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
4% (+1%)
Yes
Dec 27, 2025 to Jun 27, 2026
96% (-1%)
No
Dec 27, 2025 to Jun 27, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
After consideration, I'll move up slightly on the reports of the North Korean nuclear submarine on the theory that more vessels means more chances for encounters and escalations. 
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Why might you be wrong?

The crowd is much lower than me. Maybe North Korea doesn't want to make waves at this point. Even if they do try to antagonize South Korea, maybe nothing will come of it.

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New Prediction
Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months?
JonathanMann made their 3rd forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
3% (0%)
Yes
Dec 27, 2025 to Jun 27, 2026
97% (0%)
No
Dec 27, 2025 to Jun 27, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?
JonathanMann made their 12th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
0% (0%)
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
0% (0%)
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
0% (-7%)
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
100% (+7%)
Not before 2026
Why do you think you're right?

Lowering to zero for this year. It seems there are serious attempts to get to a negotiated settlement, but there isn't enough time left in the year for it to happen.

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Why might you be wrong?

It would be a surprise, but the way I could see it unfolding is if things are much closer than I thought. The other way might be some sort of temporary ceasefire from political pressure, but I don't think anyone is willing to exert the kind of pressure necessary to bring it about.

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New Prediction
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
JonathanMann made their 3rd forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2% (+1%)
Yes
Dec 27, 2025 to Jun 27, 2026
98% (-1%)
No
Dec 27, 2025 to Jun 27, 2026
Why do you think you're right?

Increasing due to a recent comment by @404_NOT_FOUND . I agree that some form of blockade or partial blockade has become less unlikely and could be used as a potential bargaining chip. 

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Why might you be wrong?

My best guess is that, for negotiating purposes, the threat of a blockade would be better than actually running a blockade. The way I could see this actually happening would be someone tries to call the bluff and China has to do a 3 day demonstration blockade or something.

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New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?
JonathanMann made their 3rd forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2% (-1%)
Yes
Dec 27, 2025 to Jun 27, 2026
98% (+1%)
No
Dec 27, 2025 to Jun 27, 2026
Why do you think you're right?

My read is that Israel's recognition of Somaliland will be net negative for normalizing diplomatic relations with the listed countries, so I'm lowering slightly.

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Why might you be wrong?

Maybe there's hope for a diplomatic domino effect, but I don't think that was the reason for Israel's recognition.

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New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

Time snuck up on me. Lowering due to the lack of time left. This is a question where I wish I could have lowered more consistently over time, but this is the first chance I've had to update as time runs out, so it's going to look like a drastic change.

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Why might you be wrong?

Maybe something I didn't know about will happen, but relatively few people are doing serious work over the next few days.

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