RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will the FDA have authorized a medical device that incorporates LLM-based functionality by 31 March 2026?

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 04, 2025 12:51AM UTC
(2 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	3%	2%	+1%	+0%
No	97%	98%	-1%	+0%

Will China's year-over-year GDP growth rate for Q2 2026 equal or exceed 5.0%, according to the National Bureau of Statistics of China?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 04, 2026 01:05PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	60%	30%	+30%	-5%
No	40%	70%	-30%	+5%

Will any national government publicly declare that Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) has been achieved within that country by 31 July 2026?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 04, 2026 01:07PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
No	100%	99%	+1%	+0%

Will an AI-enabled cyber-attack, attributed to a state actor, cause significant disruption to critical national infrastructure in any G20 country before 1 July 2026?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 04, 2026 01:12PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	30%	17%	+13%	+1%
No	70%	83%	-13%	-1%

Will any branch of the U.S. military have hypersonic weapons operationally deployed with field units, aboard naval vessels, or on aircraft by 30 April 2026?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
May 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 04, 2026 01:18PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	50%	35%	+16%	-24%
No	50%	66%	-16%	+24%

Will the United Nations Security Council adopt a resolution related to the conflict in Sudan by 1 May 2026?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
May 02, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 04, 2026 01:21PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	40%	40%	+0%	-36%
No	60%	60%	+0%	+36%

Will Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces retake control over Khartoum city by 31 March 2026?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 04, 2026 01:23PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	1%	-1%	-1%
No	100%	99%	+1%	+1%

Will the United Nations deploy peacekeeping forces to a conflict zone in a new country or territory by 31 July 2026?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 04, 2026 01:34PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	10%	1%	+9%	-1%
No	90%	99%	-9%	+1%

Will the Houthis (Ansarallah movement) attack a commercial shipping vessel on the Red Sea between 19 December 2025 and 31 July 2026, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 04, 2026 01:41PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	80%	76%	+4%	+7%
No	20%	24%	-4%	-7%

Will any country announce a new national carbon tax or emissions trading system by 31 July 2026?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 04, 2026 01:51PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	60%	63%	-3%	-4%
No	40%	37%	+3%	+4%

Lucas-Tang

Lucas Tang

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