Confirmed previous forecast
-0.206792
Relative Brier Score
9
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Geopolitical Security,
Russia-Ukraine War,
Emerging Technology,
Quickfire Forecasts
Most Active Topics:
East Asia Security,
Emerging Tech - AI
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
35%
(0%)
Yes
65%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(0%)
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
11%
(0%)
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
20%
(0%)
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
24%
(0%)
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
41%
(0%)
Not before 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jul 30, 2025 11:31PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
12%
(0%)
Yes
Jun 30, 2025 to Dec 30, 2025
88%
(0%)
No
Jun 30, 2025 to Dec 30, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
35%
Yes
65%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Because most U.S. AI oversight right now is through executive orders, task forces, or voluntary guidance, which don’t count as enforceable laws. Also, with 2024 being an election year, priorities are changing, and AI regulation may not be the biggest priority right now.
Also agreeing on how to regulate AI is still very difficult and the current bills regarding this are focused on funding or research not on rules for development.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Because there's a lot of senate hearings, AI frameworks, and a lot of people that are pushing the discussion forward.
There’s international pressure too, which could help the U.S. to act faster.
At the end of the day it's never impossible for a bill to be rushed be through.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
11%
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
20%
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
24%
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
41%
Not before 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Some recent developments, like the joint support from the U.S. and Ukraine for a temporary ceasefire show that they want to deescalate the conflict. So there is reason to believe that there's increased pressure for a ceasefire. Also, Putin has given conditional support.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
However there are some deep-rooted issues that have been going on for forever, like territorial disputes, NATO tensions, and also Putin, and these remain unresolved. Also any sudden military escalations or changes in political leaders could impact the diplomatic effort that's going on.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on May 25, 2025 03:13PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
12%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 25, 2025 to Oct 25, 2025
88%
(0%)
No
Apr 25, 2025 to Oct 25, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why do you think you're right?
The trend clearly shows a month to month increase, already surpassing the 50,000 lb threshold by March and accelerating in April, also the Trump administration declared narcotics inflow a national emergency and imposed tariffs, so this will increase border security and enforcement.
Why might you be wrong?
There could be seasonal enforcement drops or smuggling slowdowns in summer months, and if traffickers adapt or reroute, July seizures may drop despite strong enforcement.