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NukePirate

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Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
Oct 01, 2025 02:45PM UTC Will the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of India and the People's Republic of China engage in a lethal confrontation by 30 September 2025? -0.000483
Oct 01, 2025 02:45PM UTC How many major hurricanes (Category 3 or above) will make landfall in the continental United States between 1 June 2025 and 30 September 2025? 0.025802
Oct 01, 2025 02:45PM UTC How many incidents of political violence will there be in Mexico in August 2025? 0.28649
Aug 08, 2025 04:00PM UTC Will the number of acres burned by wildfires in the United States in July 2025 exceed 1,283,147 acres? 0.418293
Aug 01, 2025 09:00PM UTC Will U.S. President Donald Trump’s approval rating be greater than 45% on 1 August 2025? -0.019411
Aug 01, 2025 04:01AM UTC Will all NATO members agree to a defense spending target of 5% of GDP by 31 July 2025? 0.038112
Aug 01, 2025 04:01AM UTC Will the U.S. national average gas price be equal to or above $3.600 for July 2025? -0.017993
Aug 01, 2025 04:01AM UTC Which of the following territorial developments between Venezuela and Guyana will occur before 1 August 2025? -0.00049
Jul 01, 2025 04:01AM UTC Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025? 0.00239
Jul 01, 2025 04:01AM UTC Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025? 0.139905
Jun 25, 2025 02:00AM UTC Will Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic mayoral primary for New York City on 24 June 2025 in five rounds or fewer? 0.212613
May 28, 2025 08:00PM UTC Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 28, 2025 and May 28, 2025) -0.00022
Apr 28, 2025 08:00PM UTC Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 28, 2025 and Apr 28, 2025) -0.000435
Apr 04, 2025 05:00PM UTC Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 4, 2025 and Apr 4, 2025) 0.022961
Apr 02, 2025 04:00PM UTC Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 2, 2025 and Apr 2, 2025) -0.0002
Mar 28, 2025 08:00PM UTC Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Feb 28, 2025 and Mar 28, 2025) -0.0002
Mar 04, 2025 05:00PM UTC Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Feb 4, 2025 and Mar 4, 2025) 0.038282
Mar 02, 2025 04:00PM UTC Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Feb 2, 2025 and Mar 2, 2025) -0.0002
Feb 28, 2025 08:00PM UTC Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 28, 2025 and Feb 28, 2025) -0.0002
Feb 14, 2025 06:00PM UTC What percentage of global semiconductor revenue will come from the Americas region in 2024? 0.083064
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