RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will human bioengineering activities cause a biological event of high consequence (pandemic, panzootic, or epiphytotic) before 1 January 2030?

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2030 05:00AM UTC
(4 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 22, 2025 03:27PM UTC
(25 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	7%	-7%	+0%
No	100%	93%	+7%	+0%

If a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict goes into effect in 2025, how long will it last?

Forecast Count:
21 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 22, 2025 07:08PM UTC
(25 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 30 days	91%	67%	+24%	+2%
30 days	1%	6%	-5%	+0%
31-60 days	1%	6%	-5%	+0%
61-90 days	1%	5%	-4%	+0%
91 days or more	6%	17%	-11%	-1%

Will the U.S. federal government enact legislation that substantively regulates or authorizes regulation of artificial intelligence systems or their development before 1 January 2026?

Forecast Count:
17 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 22, 2025 07:09PM UTC
(25 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
No	100%	99%	+1%	+0%

Will scientists successfully create a synthetic cell from chemically synthesized components by 1 January 2035?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 23, 2025 06:18AM UTC
(24 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	10%	-5%	-2%
No	95%	90%	+5%	+2%

Will scientists be able to assemble a ribosome in vitro, composed entirely of synthetic proteins and RNA, without the use of cell-derived materials by 2030?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 23, 2025 06:26AM UTC
(24 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	20%	37%	-17%	-1%
No	80%	63%	+17%	+1%

Will the European “Coalition of the Willing” deploy forces to Ukraine in 2025?

Forecast Count:
14 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 23, 2025 02:14PM UTC
(24 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
No	100%	99%	+1%	+0%

Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
26 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 24, 2025 02:40AM UTC
(23 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	19%	-14%	-3%
No	95%	81%	+14%	+3%

Will a U.S. or U.S.-ally satellite be permanently disabled by another country or organization before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 26, 2025 06:48AM UTC
(21 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	3%	6%	-3%	+1%
No	97%	94%	+3%	-1%

Before 1 January 2029, will either the U.S. or UK enact a law granting tax incentives to companies that pass an independent security audit for their AI models?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2029 05:00AM UTC
(3 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 26, 2025 06:48AM UTC
(21 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	2%	19%	-17%	+5%
No	98%	81%	+17%	-5%

Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
18 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 26, 2025 06:49AM UTC
(21 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Oct 26, 2025 to Apr 26, 2026	Nov 26, 2025	1%	-1%	+0%
No	100%	Oct 26, 2025 to Apr 26, 2026	Nov 26, 2025	99%	+1%	+0%

Plataea479

Steven Goldblatt

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