RAND Forecasting Initiative

What will the U.S. Space Force budget be in the FY2026 National Defense Authorization Act?

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 01, 2025 02:52AM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $21.0 billion	47%	21%	+26%	+8%
More than or equal to $21.0 billion but less than $22.5 billion	49%	43%	+6%	+8%
More than or equal to $22.5 billion but less than $23.5 billion	1%	14%	-13%	-2%
More than or equal to $23.5 billion but less than $25.0 billion	1%	9%	-8%	-4%
More than or equal to $25.0 billion	2%	13%	-11%	-10%

What will the total amount of seed funding for biotech startups in the EU, UK, and Switzerland be in 2025 and 2026 combined, according to Labiotech?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 01, 2025 03:01AM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $350 million	23%	28%	-5%	+7%
More than or equal to $350 million but less than $500 million	66%	45%	+21%	+2%
More than or equal to $500 million but less than $650 million	7%	22%	-15%	-5%
More than or equal to $650 million but less than $800 million	3%	5%	-2%	-3%
More than or equal to $800 million	1%	1%	+0%	-1%

What will the total amount of seed funding for biotech startups in the U.S. be in 2025 and 2026 combined, according to Labiotech?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 01, 2025 03:05AM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $350 million	52%	42%	+10%	+6%
More than or equal to $350 million but less than $450 million	30%	35%	-5%	+2%
More than or equal to $450 million but less than $550 million	11%	15%	-4%	-5%
More than or equal to $550 million but less than $650 million	6%	5%	+1%	-3%
More than or equal to $650 million	1%	2%	-1%	+0%

What will the total amount of seed funding for biotech startups globally be in 2025 and 2026 combined, according to Labiotech?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 01, 2025 03:07AM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $1 billion	84%	84%	+0%	+21%
More than or equal to $1 billion but less than $1.2 billion	9%	11%	-2%	-16%
More than or equal to $1.2 billion but less than $1.4 billion	4%	3%	+1%	-4%
More than or equal to $1.4 billion but less than $1.6 billion	3%	2%	+1%	+0%
More than or equal to $1.6 billion	0%	0%	+0%	+0%

How many people will earn research doctorates in microbiology and immunology fields in the U.S. between the 2026 and 2030 academic years?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 01, 2025 03:10AM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 4,499	100%	6%	+94%	-4%
Between 4,500 and 4,999, inclusive	0%	12%	-12%	+0%
Between 5,000 and 5,499, inclusive	0%	75%	-75%	+2%
Between 5,500 and 5,999, inclusive	0%	7%	-7%	+2%
More than or equal to 6,000	0%	1%	-1%	+0%

Will the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index, a measure of U.S. residential home costs, exceed 350 by July 2027?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 01, 2025 03:11AM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	50%	57%	-7%	+0%
No	50%	43%	+7%	+0%

Will scientists be able to assemble a ribosome in vitro, composed entirely of synthetic proteins and RNA, without the use of cell-derived materials by 2030?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 01:35AM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	50%	36%	+14%	+0%
No	50%	64%	-14%	+0%

Will any major international non-governmental research funders implement specific policies restricting or requiring oversight of mirror biology research by 31 December 2030?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 01:35AM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	55%	47%	+8%	+0%
No	45%	53%	-8%	+0%

Will mirror reagents or products be added to the Australia Group export control list or national controlled biological agent lists in the U.S., UK, or Canada by 31 December 2032?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 01:35AM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	30%	29%	+1%	+0%
No	70%	71%	-1%	+0%

Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
17 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 01:35AM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Moldova	5%	6%	-1%	+0%
Armenia	1%	2%	-1%	+0%
Georgia	1%	3%	-2%	+0%
Kazakhstan	1%	1%	+0%	0%

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