Confirmed previous forecast
0.393004
Relative Brier Score
29
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 29 | 29 | 29 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 27 | 27 | 27 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 22 | 22 | 22 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
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Africa,
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New Prediction
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
Compare to me
This forecast expired on Nov 9, 2025 09:34PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Oct 9, 2025 to Apr 9, 2026
99%
(0%)
No
Oct 9, 2025 to Apr 9, 2026
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
19%
(-61%)
Yes
81%
(+61%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
There are fewer inbound travelers.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
FIFA world cup.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
42%
(-28%)
Yes
58%
(+28%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
The recent upward trend in seizures combined with increased enforcement.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Subject to erratic behavior and there is no good way to predict this with any reliability.
Files
New Badge
New Badge
Star Commenter - Jun 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
25%
Less than or equal to 1349
40%
Between 1350 and 1499, inclusive
20%
Between 1500 and 1649, inclusive
10%
Between 1650 and 1799, inclusive
5%
More than or equal to 1800
Why do you think you're right?
An average of 10-20 new cases reported per week for the remaining 15 weeks of the question period would place the final total squarely within the most likely 1350-1499 range.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I may be underestimating the impact of seasonality and the end of the Texas outbreak. I may also be underestimating the risk of new, large outbreaks. The high contagiousness of measles (R0 of 12-18) means that any introduction into an under-vaccinated community could lead to a rapid spike in cases.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
Yes
95%
No
Why do you think you're right?
There have only been 2-4 lethal confrontations in over 60 years, suggesting a very low probability for any given period.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The border is the most militarized in the world, with 50,000-100,000 troops deployed in close proximity. The high frequency of patrol encounters in this tense environment creates a significant mathematical risk of a miscalculation leading to a deadly incident.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
17%
Yes
83%
No
Why do you think you're right?
The National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) contains congressional restrictions that prohibit reducing troops below 28,500 without specific certifications and consultations. Moreover, the U.S. presence in South Korea is considered strategically vital for deterring China.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
President Trump has an established pattern of issuing dramatic troop-reduction announcements to achieve his goals, and his past statements about complete force reductions suggest he might move forward despite institutional opposition.
Files