increased hurricane activity and strength in recent years. ocean temperatures increasing
1.788493
Relative Brier Score
8
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Quickfire Forecasts,
Emerging Technology
Most Active Topics:
Emerging Tech - AI
New Badge
Star Commenter - Jun 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
60%
(+52%)
Less than or equal to 1
29%
(-15%)
Between 2 and 3, inclusive
11%
(-36%)
Between 4 and 5, inclusive
0%
(-1%)
More than or equal to 6
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
It's unclear when hurricanes will arrive, puerto rico is excluded so that decreases the total as well.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
8%
Less than or equal to 1
44%
Between 2 and 3, inclusive
47%
Between 4 and 5, inclusive
1%
More than or equal to 6
Why do you think you're right?
the historical average seems to be about 3, but with climate change and increasing ocean temperatures, the risk of more powerful hurricanes increases
Files
Why might you be wrong?
It's unclear if I have adequately accounted for the factors that contribute to hurricane strength and frequency.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
39%
(0%)
Yes
61%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
93%
(0%)
Yes
7%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
39%
Yes
61%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Only 1 of the last 3 July's has had seizure amounts over 50,000. Additionally, the average is roughly 50,000 and March and April this year have been above that.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The yearly trend for FY25 does appear to be increasing. Enforcement operations might be increasing as well.
Files
New Question Suggested
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
93%
Yes
7%
No
Why do you think you're right?
on April 25, 2025, the State Administration for Market Regulation and the Standardization Administration of China jointly released three national standards aimed at enhancing the security and governance of generative AI. These standards will officially take effect on November 1, 2025.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The effective date might not happen before December 31 2025
Files
Why do you think you're right?
The US is more comfortable supplying and using intermediaries. Iran would need to launch a major attack on U.S. resources first.
Why might you be wrong?
The conflict could escalate rapidly.