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| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 21 | 60 | 882 | 830 | 1639 |
| Comments | 13 | 58 | 1011 | 987 | 1912 |
| Questions Forecasted | 17 | 17 | 39 | 33 | 73 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 5 | 25 | 481 | 456 | 1544 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
19
0%
(0%)
18
1%
(0%)
17
99%
(0%)
16 or fewer
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
0%
(0%)
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
0%
(0%)
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
1%
(0%)
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
99%
(0%)
Not before 2026
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Estonia
1%
(0%)
Latvia
1%
(0%)
Lithuania
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than 62%
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 62% but less than 66%
1%
(0%)
More than or equal to 66% but less than 70%
99%
(0%)
More than or equal to 70% but less than 74%
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 74%
Why do you think you're right?
The October (i.e. part of Q4) reading for Colombia just came in at a comfortable level of 64.4 (data explorer); for comparison, their 2024 yearly reading was at 62.9.
I have updated accordingly the summary table below.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Very black swans only.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
41%
(-2%)
Less than $350 million
38%
(+2%)
More than or equal to $350 million but less than $450 million
16%
(0%)
More than or equal to $450 million but less than $550 million
4%
(0%)
More than or equal to $550 million but less than $650 million
1%
(0%)
More than or equal to $650 million
Why do you think you're right?
40M were added on Dec 1 (the 4th biggest seed round in 2025 so far), bringing the 2025 US total to 164.7M.
Linear extrapolation now gives 164.7/11*24=359M, just barely into the 2nd bin.
Adjusting accordingly.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
As before (FWIW, the Fierce Biotech tracker, last updated on Dec 5, has not registered this round).
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
82%
(-2%)
Less than $1 billion
14%
(+2%)
More than or equal to $1 billion but less than $1.2 billion
3%
(0%)
More than or equal to $1.2 billion but less than $1.4 billion
1%
(0%)
More than or equal to $1.4 billion but less than $1.6 billion
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $1.6 billion
Why do you think you're right?
40M were added on Dec 1 (the 4th biggest seed round in 2025 so far), bringing the 2025 total to 310.4M.
Linear projection now gives 310.4/11*24=677M, still into the lowest bin.
Adjusting accordingly.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
As before (FWIW, Fierce Biotech, last updated on Dec 4, has not registered this round).
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than 62%
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 62% but less than 66%
1%
(0%)
More than or equal to 66% but less than 70%
99%
(0%)
More than or equal to 70% but less than 74%
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 74%
Why do you think you're right?
The October (i.e. part of Q4) reading for Japan just came in at a record high of 80.3 (data explorer); their previous monthly all-time high was for 3 months in 2025 (May-July) at 80.2.
I have updated accordingly the summary table below.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
As before (very black swans only).
Files
New Badge
New Badge
Star Commenter - Nov 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
Why do you think you're right?
Well, the November reading for Canada just came in at 74.5 (data explorer).
So far, Canada was one of the (very) few big OECD economies exhibiting a fall during 2025 that was both persistent and substantial enough (from 74.7 in 2024 to 74.5 in January to 73.8 in August); but this does not seem to be the case for Q4 (the November reading of 74.5 is comfortably comparable with their 2024 annual value of 74.7, and 2/3 into Q4, the current quarterly average is at 74.4). And, as I have written below, other large OECD economies (namely Japan and Korea) have been registering all-time high values in 2025.
I have updated accordingly the summary table below.
So, I am maxing this out, even before the release of the Q3 reading for the OECD (or even for the US); the probability of a fall below 70.0 for the annual 2025 reading is now < 0.5%.
Why might you be wrong?
Very black swans only, by now.