RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will mirror organisms be formally addressed as a biosecurity concern in official proceedings of at least one of the following international forums (BWC Review Conference, G7/G20 Health/Science ministerial meetings, WHO forums) by 31 December 2030?

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 31, 2025 11:49PM UTC
(7 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	70%	63%	+7%	+2%
No	30%	37%	-7%	-2%

Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 07, 2025 09:21PM UTC
(6 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	7%	2%	+5%	-2%
No	93%	98%	-5%	+2%

Will the O-RAN Alliance’s specifications be integrated into 3GPP before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 07, 2025 09:25PM UTC
(6 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes, 3GPP will adopt and integrate O-RAN Alliance specifications	7%	3%	+4%	-1%
No, the O-RAN Alliance will continue to develop specifications independently of 3GPP	88%	96%	-8%	+1%
No, the O-RAN Alliance will stop developing specifications without being integrated into 3GPP	5%	2%	+3%	+0%

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 23, 2025 11:03PM UTC
(6 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Estonia	1%	3%	-2%	+0%
Latvia	1%	2%	-1%	+0%
Lithuania	1%	2%	-1%	+0%

Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 23, 2025 11:04PM UTC
(6 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Moldova	3%	5%	-2%	-2%
Armenia	1%	2%	-1%	-1%
Georgia	5%	3%	+2%	-1%
Kazakhstan	1%	1%	+0%	-1%

Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 16, 2025 12:50AM UTC
(4 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	17%	15%	+2%	-8%
No	83%	85%	-2%	+8%

What will the total amount of seed funding for biotech startups in the EU, UK, and Switzerland be in 2025 and 2026 combined, according to Labiotech?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 16, 2025 01:34AM UTC
(4 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $350 million	33%	33%	+0%	+13%
More than or equal to $350 million but less than $500 million	37%	45%	-8%	+4%
More than or equal to $500 million but less than $650 million	15%	17%	-2%	-10%
More than or equal to $650 million but less than $800 million	10%	4%	+6%	-5%
More than or equal to $800 million	5%	1%	+4%	-2%

Will scientists be able to assemble a ribosome in vitro, composed entirely of synthetic proteins and RNA, without the use of cell-derived materials by 2030?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 16, 2025 01:54AM UTC
(4 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	45%	36%	+9%	-1%
No	55%	64%	-9%	+1%

How many people will earn research doctorates in microbiology and immunology fields in the U.S. between the 2026 and 2030 academic years?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 28, 2025 04:35PM UTC
(3 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 4,499	1%	8%	-7%	-1%
Between 4,500 and 4,999, inclusive	18%	9%	+9%	-2%
Between 5,000 and 5,499, inclusive	65%	75%	-10%	+2%
Between 5,500 and 5,999, inclusive	15%	6%	+9%	+1%
More than or equal to 6,000	1%	1%	+0%	+0%

Will a U.S. or non-U.S. entity train an artificial intelligence model at least 10^27 computational operations (FLOPs) before 1 June 2027?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 14, 2025 07:18PM UTC
(2 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
U.S. Entity	95%	85%	+10%	+6%
Non-U.S. Entity	70%	55%	+15%	+0%

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