Predicting future biological events, especially those related to human bioengineering, involves significant uncertainty. While advancements in bioengineering hold promise for medicine and agriculture, they also raise concerns about unintended consequences, such as the creation of pathogens that could lead to pandemics or other widespread biological events.
-0.22477
Relative Brier Score
4
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 2 | 11 | 4 | 64 |
| Comments | 0 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 6 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 2 | 10 | 4 | 32 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
50%
Yes
50%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
While the potential for a high-consequence biological event exists, whether it will occur by 2030 is uncertain and depends on various factors, including human behavior, regulatory frameworks, and scientific advancements.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
55%
Yes
Jan 30, 2025 to Jul 30, 2026
45%
No
Jan 30, 2025 to Jul 30, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Factors Favoring a Cyber Attack
Ongoing Tensions: The geopolitical climate between Russia and NATO remains tense, which increases the likelihood of cyber operations as a tool of statecraft.
Previous Incidents: Russia has a history of using cyber attacks against critical infrastructure in various countries, indicating a capability and willingness to conduct such operations.
Hybrid Warfare Strategy: Russia has employed hybrid warfare tactics, combining cyber operations with traditional military posturing, which could lead to escalated cyber attacks.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Factors Against a Cyber Attack
Risk of Escalation: A successful cyber attack causing physical damage or casualties could provoke a strong military response from NATO, which may deter Russia from such actions.
Defensive Measures: NATO countries have been enhancing their cyber defenses and readiness, making it more difficult for adversaries to execute successful attacks.
Unintended Consequences: Cyber operations can have unpredictable outcomes, and the risk of collateral damage may lead to caution in executing high-stakes attacks.
Focus on Other Priorities: Russia may prioritize other strategic objectives, focusing on traditional military actions rather than cyber operations against NATO infrastructure.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Feb 28, 2025 10:12PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
40%
Yes
Jan 30, 2025 to Jul 30, 2025
60%
No
Jan 30, 2025 to Jul 30, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
Factors Favoring Action
Political Tensions: Heightened political tensions between China and Taiwan could lead to increased military posturing or actions.
Military Exercises: The PLA has conducted numerous military drills near Taiwan, which could be interpreted as preparation for potential actions.
Nationalism: Domestic pressures within China, fueled by nationalism, might drive the government to take a more aggressive stance regarding Taiwan.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Factors Against Action
International Response: An invasion or blockade could provoke a strong international response, particularly from the United States and its allies, which may deter aggressive actions.
Economic Considerations: China may weigh the economic repercussions of military action against Taiwan, considering the potential for sanctions and disruptions to global trade.
Strategic Calculations: The PLA may prioritize consolidating its military capabilities and continuing psychological operations rather than immediate military action.
Taiwan's Preparedness: Taiwan's military readiness and defense strategies could influence the likelihood of PLA actions.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jan 30, 2025 02:02PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
20%
(-52%)
Yes
Dec 30, 2024 to Dec 30, 2025
80%
(+52%)
No
Dec 30, 2024 to Dec 30, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
Given the current competitive landscape, where Western models like GPT-4 (and its potential successors), Claude, and Gemini lead in overall performance on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard, it is unlikely that a Chinese LLM will break into the top 3 within the next 12 months.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
To answer whether a Large Language Model (LLM) built by a Chinese organization will rank in the top 3 on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard over the next 12 months, there are several key factors
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
Less than or equal to 59
20%
Between 60 and 69, inclusive
20%
Between 70 and 79, inclusive
20%
Between 80 and 89, inclusive
20%
More than or equal to 90
Why do you think you're right?
Although it's impossible to predict an exact number, I would estimate that several hundred cases of disinformation could occur during this period. These could range from minor individual incidents to larger coordinated campaigns.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Efforts by governments, media, and fact-checking organizations will likely mitigate some of this disinformation, but the volume will still be substantial given the current geopolitical climate. The exact number will depend on how events unfold in the coming year
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
57%
(0%)
Yes
43%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Predicting whether specific countries like Argentina, Bolivia, or Ecuador will default on their external debt before a specific date involves analyzing various economic, political, and social factors.
Why might you be wrong?
While there is a risk of default in any country, particularly those with existing economic challenges, predicting an exact outcome for specific countries by a specific date remains uncertain.