Given these considerations, my outlook leans towards No—I believe the FDA is unlikely to authorize a medical device with LLM functionality by the end of March 2026. The regulatory hurdles, combined with the current lack of precedent for such devices, suggest that more time is needed to ensure safety and efficacy through robust frameworks and guidelines.
0.18608
Relative Brier Score
0
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 2 | 19 | 16 | 76 |
| Comments | 0 | 2 | 18 | 16 | 18 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 2 | 18 | 16 | 43 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
99%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The FDA's careful approach to integrating generative AI into healthcare likely means that any authorized devices using LLMs will only emerge after thorough evaluation and development of clear regulatory pathways.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
70%
Yes
30%
No
Why do you think you're right?
My reasoning is based on several key factors:
Historical Trends: The Case-Shiller Index has shown significant growth over the long term, reflecting general increases in home prices across the U.S.
Market Recovery: Following any economic downturns, the housing market often rebounds, driven by pent-up demand and low interest rates, which could push the index higher.
Economic Indicators: Positive economic indicators, such as job growth and rising incomes, typically support higher home prices, which could contribute to the index exceeding 350.
Demographic Trends: Population growth and urbanization can drive demand for housing, further influencing price increases.
Investor Activity: Increased interest from institutional investors in residential real estate can also push home prices upward.
These factors suggest that there is a reasonable basis for believing the index could reach or exceed 350, but it's essential to consider the inherent uncertainties in the housing market.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
There are several reasons why my prediction might be incorrect:
Economic Downturns: A recession or economic instability could lead to decreased consumer confidence and lower home prices, affecting the index negatively.
Rising Interest Rates: If interest rates increase significantly, mortgage affordability could decline, potentially dampening demand for homes and slowing price growth.
Market Corrections: The housing market may experience corrections after periods of rapid price increases, which could lead to stagnation or declines in the index.
Supply Chain Issues: Ongoing supply chain disruptions could affect new home construction, impacting supply and, consequently, home prices.
Changing Demographics: Shifts in population trends, such as moving away from urban areas or changes in household formation rates, could influence demand in unpredictable ways.
These factors illustrate the volatility of the housing market and underscore the uncertainty in predicting future index values.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
55%
Yes
45%
No
Why do you think you're right?
My reasoning is based on several key factors:
Current Global Dynamics: The geopolitical climate is increasingly focused on energy security, and countries like the U.S. and EU have previously imposed sanctions related to energy sectors.
Precedent of Sanctions: Historical examples show that economic sanctions often target key industries, particularly oil and gas, when countries are perceived to violate international norms.
Ongoing Tensions: Rising tensions over issues like human rights, environmental policies, or military actions can trigger sanctions, especially against state-owned entities in strategic sectors.
Economic Leverage: Sanctions are a tool used by major powers to exert influence or respond to actions they deem unacceptable, and energy sectors are often high on the list.
Regional Importance: Egypt, Jordan, and the UAE play significant roles in the energy landscape, making them potential targets if political circumstances shift.
These factors provide a basis for the belief that sanctions could be announced, but the situation remains fluid and subject to change.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
There are several reasons why my prediction might be incorrect:
Diplomatic Considerations: Strong diplomatic ties between these countries and the states involved may prevent the imposition of sanctions, as nations often seek to avoid disrupting relationships.
Economic Dependencies: Countries like the U.S. and EU may rely on energy supplies from the region, making them hesitant to impose sanctions that could affect their own economies.
Internal Politics: Domestic political pressures within the sanctioning countries may lead to a decision against imposing new sanctions, especially if they are concerned about backlash or unintended consequences.
Changing Geopolitical Landscape: The international situation can change rapidly, and new alliances or agreements may emerge that reduce the likelihood of sanctions.
Legal and Procedural Hurdles: The process of imposing sanctions can be complex and may require extensive legal justification, which might not be viable in all cases.
These factors highlight the uncertainties involved in predicting international actions, making it challenging to ascertain the likelihood of new sanctions by the specified date.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
50%
Yes
50%
No
Why do you think you're right?
The likelihood of major international non-governmental research funders implementing specific policies regarding mirror biology research by December 31, 2030, depends on several factors
Files
Why might you be wrong?
it is plausible that some international funders may implement oversight policies related to mirror biology research by 2030, particularly if ethical and societal concerns continue to grow.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
40%
Yes
60%
No
Why do you think you're right?
The assembly of a ribosome in vitro using entirely synthetic proteins and RNA by 2030 is a highly ambitious goal.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
In summary, while it's difficult to predict with certainty, significant advancements in synthetic biology by 2030 could make this possible, but challenges remain.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
80%
Yes
20%
No
Why do you think you're right?
It's quite possible that scientists will successfully create a synthetic cell from chemically synthesized components by January 1, 2035. There's been significant progress in synthetic biology, and researchers are making strides in understanding and engineering cellular systems.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
While challenges remain, advancements in technology and our understanding of biology could lead to breakthroughs in this area within that timeframe.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
As of now, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) have recently recaptured Khartoum from the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Given that military control in urban areas like Khartoum often involves significant coordination and resources, a swift RSF takeover appears unlikely in the absence of major shifts in the conflict dynamics.
Why might you be wrong?
Change in Tactical Advantage: If the RSF were to gain significant new resources or tactical advantages, such as air support or reinforcements, they might be able to mount a successful campaign to retake Khartoum.