Considering these factors, the probability of JNIM effectively taking control over Bamako by June 1, 2026, appears low. The existing government has mechanisms to strengthen its defense, and urban control challenges remain significant. Therefore, forecasting that JNIM will not take control seems the most plausible outcome based on the current situation.
3.382953
Relative Brier Score
11
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
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| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
100%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Urban Control Difficulties: Controlling a city of Bamako’s size involves more than military presence; it requires administrative control, which is complex in urban environments. Urban warfare can often favor established military forces defending a city.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
60%
Yes
40%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Given the increasing sophistication of cyber threats, the existing vulnerabilities in critical infrastructure worldwide, and the current geopolitical climate, it seems plausible that an AI-enabled cyber-attack could occur within the specified timeframe. However, successful attribution and measurable disruption are critical to fulfilling the resolution criteria.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Attribution Difficulties: While AI may be used in an attack, attributing it to a specific state actor can be complex and may delay responses. If credible attribution is not achieved promptly, it could hinder the resolution of this question.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
50%
Yes
50%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Recent Resolutions: The UN Security Council has been active regarding Sudan, passing multiple resolutions in recent years, including those addressing sanctions and humanitarian needs. This ongoing attention may create pressure for further resolutions as the situation evolves.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Crisis Severity: The ongoing civil war has led to a dire humanitarian situation, which often prompts international bodies to take action. With millions displaced and significant atrocities reported, there is a compelling reason for the Security Council to respond, potentially through new resolutions.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
Yes
70%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Given these points, the likelihood of the March 8 coalition winning a majority (65 seats) appears uncertain. While they have formidable support, recent trends suggest they may struggle to regain a majority, especially considering the substantial losses incurred and the changing political landscape.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
will be essential to monitor developments as the elections approach.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
Yes
70%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Based on the information provided, predicting whether China's year-over-year GDP growth rate for Q2 2026 will equal or exceed 5.0% is complex due to various influencing factors.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
With these considerations, if I had to answer based on existing data and trends, I would lean towards skepticism about Q2 2026 achieving a growth rate of 5.0% or higher, but the final determination will depend heavily on the broader economic context and specific policy measures leading up to that time.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
100%
No
Why do you think you're right?
As of now, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) have recently recaptured Khartoum from the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Given that military control in urban areas like Khartoum often involves significant coordination and resources, a swift RSF takeover appears unlikely in the absence of major shifts in the conflict dynamics.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Change in Tactical Advantage: If the RSF were to gain significant new resources or tactical advantages, such as air support or reinforcements, they might be able to mount a successful campaign to retake Khartoum.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Given the entrenched conflicts and complexity in the region, the likelihood of the RSF retaking control over Khartoum city by the end of March 2026 is uncertain. The prevailing dynamics suggest challenges that may prevent a definitive outcome in their favor.
Thus, forecasting that the RSF will not retake control seems more plausible based on these considerations.
Why might you be wrong?
Military Resistance: The SAF's capacity to defend Khartoum, combined with potential international support, poses a substantial challenge to the RSF's ambitions of dominating the city.