Confirmed previous forecast
0.761644
Relative Brier Score
299
Forecasts
3
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 3 | 17 | 302 | 299 | 1248 |
| Comments | 1 | 2 | 41 | 40 | 119 |
| Questions Forecasted | 3 | 8 | 16 | 15 | 90 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 73 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
93%
(0%)
U.S. Entity
80%
(0%)
Non-U.S. Entity
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
90%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
93%
(0%)
U.S. Entity
80%
(0%)
Non-U.S. Entity
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 31, 2025 to Jun 30, 2026
99%
(0%)
No
Dec 31, 2025 to Jun 30, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 31, 2025 to Jun 30, 2026
100%
(0%)
No
Dec 31, 2025 to Jun 30, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-4%)
Yes
100%
(+4%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Year is coming to an end.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Unlikely with 12h left.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
The time window is a bit short. This would be within the next six months. I also don't see why a country would benefit from claiming it (unless it houses the company so the US and China seem the most realistic).
Why might you be wrong?
There might be certain diplomatic reasons why it is advantageous to claim it and the definition is vague (but also vague enough to face enough opposition within governments).