Using base rates and assuming the conflict continues at a relatively similar pace accounting for some fluctuations in either direction I think giving 10-19% a 60% chance is fair. I think there is a lesser chance of the conflict drastically dropping off as opposed to the conflict increasing.
0.015551
Relative Brier Score
7
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
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Most Active Topics:
Geopolitical Security,
Russia-Ukraine War,
Emerging Technology,
Iran: Threats & Influence
Most Active Topics:
Africa,
Russian Disinformation,
Iran Nuclear Program
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
Less than or equal to 9%
60%
Between 10% and 19%, inclusive
25%
Between 20% and 29%, inclusive
0%
Between 30% and 39%, inclusive
0%
More than or equal to 40%
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
If the delta of volatility related to the conflict in Ukraine increases or decreases rapidly I might have allocated too low a possibility for outside of 10-19%.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
36%
(0%)
Togo
76%
(0%)
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
25%
(0%)
Yes
75%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
100%
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)
no
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
36%
Togo
76%
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations
Although Russian military officials have been meeting with Togolese Officials the chance of a Russian presence in Togo cannot be close to the chance of a Russian presence in any new African Country, it's only one country after all. Considering Wagner/Africa Corp's current presence in Africa, it's highly likely they will become active in another African country before 2026.
Files
New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
25%
Yes
75%
No
Why do you think you're right?
NVDA is currently battling with AAPL and MSFT for the number one spot, both of which have over $3T in market cap. The economy is currently headed into a stagflationary period and will oscillate between reflation and stagflation, so it really depends on what the economy will look like on May 30th, 2025. If it is in a longer stagflationary period, MSFT or AAPL will pull ahead, with NVDA experiencing some multiple compression due to high valuation multiples. These are, to a degree, justified, but when the market gets scared, growth performs poorly.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
NVDA is a phenomenal company that everyone wants to buy, and if the economy stays in shape, there's a very likely chance it will pull well ahead of MSFT and AAPL. Factoring in these variables of the economy affecting the valuation of NVDA and having two close contenders currently, with AAPL pulling even slightly ahead, I think a 25% chance is a realistic initial forecast.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Assuming conflict continues at a similar rate w/ a reasonable margin of error
Why might you be wrong?
Conflict is vastly exacerbated or abates