I am not an expert in the area and haven't done much more than follow the news, but there seems to be no compelling reason to expect the numbers to drop from their trend over the past few months. I would expect a slight rise given the military expansion.
0.009564
Relative Brier Score
6
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
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Emerging Tech - AI
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Less than or equal to 500
25%
Between 501 and 750, inclusive
57%
Between 751 and 1000, inclusive
17%
Between 1001 and 1250, inclusive
1%
More than or equal to 1251
Why do you think you're right?
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Why might you be wrong?
This is an extremely chaotic situation and difficult to predict.
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New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jun 28, 2025 06:39PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
May 28, 2025 to Nov 28, 2025
99%
(0%)
No
May 28, 2025 to Nov 28, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
Yes
85%
No
Why do you think you're right?
The odds seem low overall, given the current administration's stated resistance to AI regulation and the difficulty of getting a bill through congress more generally.
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Why might you be wrong?
There's a reasonable chance that there will be an AI development so significant in the coming months that it will spur action.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
Yes
95%
No
Why do you think you're right?
These clashes are extremely infrequent - even in a time of heightened tensions the probability seems low.
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Why might you be wrong?
It depends on so many hidden factors.
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Why do you think you're right?
It looks to be a very close election that has tightened towards the end, but I would imaging that Cuomo's name recognition would make him a popular 2nd, 3rd, etc. choice for people who voted for another candidate, so I would expect him to get a significant boost as candidates are eliminated in early rounds.
Why might you be wrong?
I have not been following this election closely and there may well be information I'm missing.