Confirmed previous forecast
0.00321
Relative Brier Score
4
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Geopolitical Security,
Quickfire Forecasts,
Russia-Ukraine War
New Prediction
Will the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of India and the People's Republic of China engage in a lethal confrontation by 30 September 2025?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
Yes
90%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Putin has had a tight hold on Russian political power for decades. He has worked to ensure loyalty to him within the regime and has prevented the designation of a successor.
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Why might you be wrong?
There is the possibility that he could die - either as a result of illness or something more insidious.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
Yes
95%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Per the information provided, deadly military confrontations are quite rare. In addition, I would suspect that both countries have more pressing priorities/irritants than this particular border dispute.
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Why might you be wrong?
Not only do I have very little exposure to this topic in this context (and recognize that there are limited data points to build off of), but I do not have a good sense of the base rate. As both countries deal with domestic challenges (or other challenges in the international sphere), it is possible that they may take additional risks related to this particular border dispute in an effort to drum up support from their domestic populations.
Files
New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
97%
Yes
3%
No
If there were going to be a turnover in political power, it would have happened already. At this point, the international community's attention is elsewhere, and attacks on/threats of attacks on his opponents are escalating (with important opposition figures fleeing the country).
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