Cold weather and un-transitioned infrastructure continue to be the limiting factors on the demand for residential and some commercial natural gas.
1.752241
Relative Brier Score
5
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
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Most Active Topics:
Quickfire Forecasts,
Russia-Ukraine War,
Geopolitical Security
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
85%
(-11%)
Yes
15%
(+11%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Political will and local transitions away from Russia-sourced natural gas (by alternative source or by alternative fuel) may keep the demand below the threshold.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
(+17%)
Yes
80%
(-17%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Since my last forecast, fighting has resumed and both sides blame the other, making a quick resolution (before 15 January) unlikely. At the time of this forecast, the number of reported deaths is 12/20, greatly shrinking the slack in the system.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Increased international attention may result in renewed peace efforts.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
Yes
97%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Both nations are moving toward peace, regardless of recent disputes. Globally and regionally influential third parties are pushing for resolution using mutually reinforcing levers across the PESTLE framework.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
20 deaths, while significant, are possible in one flare-up event, with or without retaliation.
Files
New Badge
My First Question
Congratulations on making your first forecast!
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
96%
Yes
4%
No
Why do you think you're right?
The EU's energy mix remains almost a quarter natural gas, and they have not built the necessary infrastructure fast enough to transition significantly before the end of the year. National diversification plans are not due until Spring 2026 for REPowerEU. This winter is also projected to be colder than usual, so heating costs will be high, perhaps on par with the last La Nina in 2022-23. https://www.iea.org/regions/europe/natural-gas
https://www.onthesnow.co.uk/news/long-range-weather-forecast-for-europe/
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The EU's continued orientation against Russia may influence them to accept higher fuel costs from other markets, particularly in North America or the global south.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Momentum has stalled on international bandwagoning. Even if two additional countries recognize the state of Palestine within the time window of this forecast (e.g. the Asian or European countries), the total would remain at 16 or fewer.
Why might you be wrong?
End of year political messaging may provide another opportunity for the international community to push for peace due to the area's importance for Christian and Muslim identity/history. I would expect that to only account for an additional three recognizing countries, however (17 total).