probahilliby

About:

Certified Superforecaster® at Good Judgment Inc. (Ranked #1 in 2025 Season); Metaculus Pro forecaster; forecaster for the RAND Forecasting Institute; culinarian; pharmacology.

"Surprisingly-resistant-to-regression-to-the-mean forecaster"

Questions everything but not a cynic.

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Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Aug 01, 2025 04:01AM UTC	Will all NATO members agree to a defense spending target of 5% of GDP by 31 July 2025?	0.249358
Aug 01, 2025 04:01AM UTC	Which of the following territorial developments between Venezuela and Guyana will occur before 1 August 2025?	0.013432
Aug 01, 2025 04:01AM UTC	Will the United States and Iran announce a new nuclear deal before 1 August 2025?	0.009363
Jul 04, 2025 05:00PM UTC	Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jun 4, 2025 and Jul 4, 2025)	0.02668
Jul 04, 2025 05:00PM UTC	Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jun 4, 2025 and Jul 4, 2025)	0.055387
Jul 01, 2025 04:01AM UTC	Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?	-0.00001
Jul 01, 2025 04:01AM UTC	Will the U.S. Congress pass a budget reconciliation bill before 1 July 2025?	0.051354
Jun 25, 2025 02:00AM UTC	Will Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic mayoral primary for New York City on 24 June 2025 in five rounds or fewer?	-0.053573
Jun 21, 2025 11:50PM UTC	Will the United States launch a kinetic strike against Iran before 1 August 2025?	-0.1206
Jun 04, 2025 05:00PM UTC	Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between May 4, 2025 and Jun 4, 2025)	0.014258
May 04, 2025 05:00PM UTC	Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 4, 2025 and May 4, 2025)	0.002607
May 02, 2025 04:00PM UTC	Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 2, 2025 and May 2, 2025)	0.0
Apr 04, 2025 05:00PM UTC	Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 4, 2025 and Apr 4, 2025)	0.011194
Apr 02, 2025 04:00PM UTC	Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 2, 2025 and Apr 2, 2025)	0.0
Apr 01, 2025 07:00PM UTC	Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 1, 2025 and Apr 1, 2025)	-0.030184
Mar 04, 2025 05:00PM UTC	Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Feb 4, 2025 and Mar 4, 2025)	0.030339
Mar 04, 2025 05:00PM UTC	Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Feb 4, 2025 and Mar 4, 2025)	0.0096
Mar 02, 2025 04:00PM UTC	Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Feb 2, 2025 and Mar 2, 2025)	0.000914
Mar 01, 2025 07:00PM UTC	Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Feb 1, 2025 and Mar 1, 2025)	-0.126221
Feb 04, 2025 05:00PM UTC	Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 4, 2025 and Feb 4, 2025)	0.015432