Confirmed previous forecast
-0.058083
Relative Brier Score
163
Forecasts
20
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 5 | 163 | 163 | 163 |
| Comments | 0 | 1 | 90 | 90 | 90 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 5 | 20 | 20 | 20 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 20 | 20 | 20 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Geopolitical Security,
Russia-Ukraine War,
Emerging Technology,
Quickfire Forecasts,
Forecaster Submissions
Most Active Topics:
Russia-Europe,
Emerging Tech - AI
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
0%
(0%)
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
0%
(0%)
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
0%
(0%)
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
100%
(0%)
Not before 2026
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
(0%)
Less than 30 days
0%
(0%)
30 days
0%
(0%)
31-60 days
0%
(0%)
61-90 days
0%
(0%)
91 days or more
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Estonia
0%
(0%)
Latvia
0%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Dec 4, 2025 02:50PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(-2%)
Yes
Nov 4, 2025 to May 4, 2026
99%
(+2%)
No
Nov 4, 2025 to May 4, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Dismissal of generals seems to indicate Xi still lacks confidence in the PLA.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I have not done as much research as previously.
Files
New Badge
Star Commenter - Oct 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Passage of time
Why might you be wrong?
There are still nearly two month remaining.