RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Jan 09, 2026 05:00PM UTC	Will the EU import at least 15 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia in any quarter of 2025?	-0.000241
Jan 01, 2026 05:01AM UTC	Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?	-0.003716
Jan 01, 2026 05:01AM UTC	Will the United States implement new or expanded export controls on advanced AI chips, cloud access to AI computing, and/or AI model weights in 2025?	-0.03533
Jan 01, 2026 05:01AM UTC	When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?	-0.021905
Jan 01, 2026 05:01AM UTC	Will the European “Coalition of the Willing” deploy forces to Ukraine in 2025?	-0.000629
Oct 12, 2025 03:27PM UTC	Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 1, 2025 and Oct 12, 2025)	0.102295
Oct 01, 2025 04:00PM UTC	Will the Latin American governments listed (Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025?	-0.00419
Aug 02, 2025 04:00PM UTC	Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jul 2, 2025 and Aug 2, 2025)	0.003881
Aug 01, 2025 09:00PM UTC	Will U.S. President Donald Trump’s approval rating be greater than 45% on 1 August 2025?	-0.011748
Aug 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC	Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 22, 2024 and Jan 1, 2025)	0.0
Jul 28, 2025 08:00PM UTC	Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jun 28, 2025 and Jul 28, 2025)	0.0006
Jul 24, 2025 04:00PM UTC	Will the share of battery-electric vehicles among new registered cars in the EU exceed 20% by the second quarter of 2025?	0.438364
Jul 04, 2025 05:00PM UTC	Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jun 4, 2025 and Jul 4, 2025)	0.0003
Jul 02, 2025 04:00PM UTC	Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jun 2, 2025 and Jul 2, 2025)	0.000087
Jul 01, 2025 05:01AM UTC	Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 6, 2024 and Jan 1, 2025)	0.0
Jul 01, 2025 05:01AM UTC	Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 6, 2024 and Jan 1, 2025)	0.0
Jul 01, 2025 04:01AM UTC	Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?	-0.000062
Jun 28, 2025 08:00PM UTC	Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between May 28, 2025 and Jun 28, 2025)	0.000581
Jun 13, 2025 06:32PM UTC	Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 26, 2024 and Jun 13, 2025)	0.027481
Jun 04, 2025 05:00PM UTC	Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between May 4, 2025 and Jun 4, 2025)	0.000303

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Sebastian Witteler

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