Forecasted Questions
Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 29, 2025 12:38PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Dec 29, 2025 12:38PM UTC
(1 month ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 10% | 16% | -6% | -1% |
| No | 90% | 84% | +6% | +1% |
Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
16 Forecasts
16 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 06, 2026 01:37AM UTC
(27 days ago)
Jan 06, 2026 01:37AM UTC
(27 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moldova | 4% | 5% | -1% | +0% |
| Armenia | 3% | 2% | +1% | +0% |
| Georgia | 3% | 3% | +0% | +0% |
| Kazakhstan | 3% | 1% | +2% | +0% |
Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027?
Forecast Count:
15 Forecasts
15 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 06, 2026 01:37AM UTC
(27 days ago)
Jan 06, 2026 01:37AM UTC
(27 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 14% | 3% | +11% | +0% |
| No | 86% | 97% | -11% | +0% |
Will human bioengineering activities cause a biological event of high consequence (pandemic, panzootic, or epiphytotic) before 1 January 2030?
Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2030 05:00AM UTC
(4 years from now)
Jan 01, 2030 05:00AM UTC
(4 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 06, 2026 01:37AM UTC
(27 days ago)
Jan 06, 2026 01:37AM UTC
(27 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 6% | 7% | -1% | +0% |
| No | 94% | 93% | +1% | +0% |
Will scientists be able to assemble a ribosome in vitro, composed entirely of synthetic proteins and RNA, without the use of cell-derived materials by 2030?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 06, 2026 01:37AM UTC
(27 days ago)
Jan 06, 2026 01:37AM UTC
(27 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 45% | 36% | +9% | -2% |
| No | 55% | 64% | -9% | +2% |
Will scientists successfully create a synthetic cell from chemically synthesized components by 1 January 2035?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 06, 2026 01:37AM UTC
(27 days ago)
Jan 06, 2026 01:37AM UTC
(27 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 10% | 12% | -2% | +0% |
| No | 90% | 88% | +2% | +0% |
Will the O-RAN Alliance’s specifications be integrated into 3GPP before 1 January 2027?
Forecast Count:
14 Forecasts
14 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 06, 2026 01:38AM UTC
(27 days ago)
Jan 06, 2026 01:38AM UTC
(27 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes, 3GPP will adopt and integrate O-RAN Alliance specifications | 18% | 3% | +15% | +0% |
| No, the O-RAN Alliance will continue to develop specifications independently of 3GPP | 75% | 96% | -21% | +0% |
| No, the O-RAN Alliance will stop developing specifications without being integrated into 3GPP | 7% | 2% | +5% | +0% |
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
16 Forecasts
16 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 06, 2026 01:38AM UTC
(27 days ago)
Jan 06, 2026 01:38AM UTC
(27 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia | 2% | 3% | -1% | +0% |
| Latvia | 2% | 2% | +0% | +0% |
| Lithuania | 2% | 2% | +0% | +0% |
Will any major international non-governmental research funders implement specific policies restricting or requiring oversight of mirror biology research by 31 December 2030?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 06, 2026 01:38AM UTC
(27 days ago)
Jan 06, 2026 01:38AM UTC
(27 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 20% | 45% | -25% | -3% |
| No | 80% | 55% | +25% | +3% |
Will mirror reagents or products be added to the Australia Group export control list or national controlled biological agent lists in the U.S., UK, or Canada by 31 December 2032?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 06, 2026 01:39AM UTC
(27 days ago)
Jan 06, 2026 01:39AM UTC
(27 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 20% | 28% | -8% | +0% |
| No | 80% | 72% | +8% | +0% |