Akkete

Only one month left.

Almost certain now.

Other forecasters have suggested a base rate of 2–5 such deals per year (based on most recent years). There's still 8 months to go giving 1.3–3.3 deals in expectation. So, a naive calculation would suggest 65% chance for positive a resolution. That's quite close to the current crowd consensus. 

Given the currently ongoing increase in European defense spending, we might want to increase this. On the other hand the possibility of front loading has been suggested: maybe most of the new procurements are already underway and there are will be few new ones going forward.

I'll start by going slightly under the crowd forecast and rough base rate. While it feels like this should be an easy 'yes' resolution, I also feel that I wouldn't be surprised if less than two deals materialized in the timeframe. So, I don't want to go more confident than crowd, at least not before thinking some more.

This seems unlikely given the current trajectory. However, frontier AI's are still a hot topic and there's lots of discourse around keeping America in the lead compared to China. New developments happen often, just this week there was an executive order aimed to keeping US in the forefront of AI. I will predict 20% for this question, meaning I still don't expect it to happen, but I'm less certain than the crowd.

Bumping up. The crowd is much higher than what I thought it would be and what my previous forecast was. Plus reading this question again, well, getting formally addressed doesn't sound like such a high bar. No news that I have seen or other substantive arguments behind this update.