Confirmed previous forecast
-0.000156
Relative Brier Score
0
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 54 | 201 | 2193 | 2109 | 4910 |
| Comments | 14 | 67 | 612 | 585 | 816 |
| Questions Forecasted | 47 | 47 | 102 | 91 | 210 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 4 | 8 | 140 | 132 | 820 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Estonia
1%
(0%)
Latvia
3%
(0%)
Lithuania
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
70%
(0%)
Less than 30 days
0%
(0%)
30 days
4%
(0%)
31-60 days
4%
(0%)
61-90 days
22%
(0%)
91 days or more
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 18, 2025 to Jun 18, 2026
99%
(0%)
No
Dec 18, 2025 to Jun 18, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
6%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 18, 2025 to Jun 18, 2027
94%
(0%)
No
Dec 18, 2025 to Jun 18, 2027
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Less than $21.0 billion
79%
(0%)
More than or equal to $21.0 billion but less than $22.5 billion
10%
(0%)
More than or equal to $22.5 billion but less than $23.5 billion
1%
(0%)
More than or equal to $23.5 billion but less than $25.0 billion
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $25.0 billion
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
(0%)
Yes
0%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Europe allocates the same amount or less than the U.S.
0%
(0%)
More than €0 but less than €10 billion
0%
(0%)
At least €10 billion but less than €20 billion
50%
(+10%)
At least €20 billion but less than €30 billion
50%
(-10%)
€30 billion or more
Why do you think you're right?
Only 3 two-month-periods since the beginning of the war, that would have been enough to close the gap to highest bin. Two of them this year, out of 5 so far this year.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Only thing I´m really sure about is, that it will be 24b or more.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
Yes
85%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Very first impression: only looking at the curve under "more info" and peak of 21.9 in 2020 makes this look like 50:50 at best, probably lower. Trend looks relatively flat but volatile since 2015.
Second approach: looking at the states and their main trading goods. "West Asia comprises 18 countries, namely, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Cyprus, Georgia, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Palestine, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syrian Arab Republic, Turkey, United Arab Emirates, and Yemen."; "The 6 Countries Of North Africa · Algeria · Egypt · Libya · Morocco · Sudan · Tunisia. ". Most of them with relatively weak economies or to large parts based on raw materials (oil, gas, fertilizer (e.g. phosphate in some of them)).
They are relatively close to each other, so trading with each other makes sense, but I don´t see room for big changes upwards. Some in relative chaos or at least unstability, so relevant increase would need to come from only a few of them, or from more instability (weapons? food for Egypt?). Sorry, I don´t see much more demand for oil and gas in buyer countries or much potential for other goods.
Third approach: "us together against others" (trade deals out of solidarity?). Unlikely.
No time for more approaches, so long story short: possible, but quite unlikely.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Ultra complex topic.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
99%
No
Why do you think you're right?
12 possible scenarios (plus combinations of them), but I don´t see them above 0.1% on average. Extremely specific question criteria (state-owned oil entitities from 3 countries belonging to the more harmless ones in that part of the world). If at all, it would probably have to do with EU sanctions as a reaction to some event in the Arab world/Near or Middle East (Israel, Sudan, Yemen???). Would have given a different answer, if it had been about Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia etc., but not these. Sorry, my phantasy is not strong enough for more than one symbolic point.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
MENA is a high priority for RFI, and those things don´t come from nowhere. Might have overlooked a trend or topic.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
25%
(0%)
Yes
75%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files