Confirmed previous forecast
-0.388364
Relative Brier Score
1142
Forecasts
414
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 49 | 194 | 2197 | 2100 | 4901 |
| Comments | 17 | 66 | 616 | 582 | 813 |
| Questions Forecasted | 45 | 45 | 100 | 89 | 208 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 5 | 8 | 143 | 132 | 820 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Before 1 January 2029, will either the U.S. or UK enact a law granting tax incentives to companies that pass an independent security audit for their AI models?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
25%
(0%)
Yes
75%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
50%
(0%)
Yes
50%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
13%
(0%)
Yes
87%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 13, 2025 to Jun 13, 2026
98%
(0%)
No
Dec 13, 2025 to Jun 13, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Moldova
0%
(0%)
Armenia
2%
(0%)
Georgia
0%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(-3%)
Yes
97%
(+3%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Time, very unlikely between 24 and 31 December.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
x
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(-1%)
Yes
97%
(+1%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
time
Files
Why might you be wrong?
x
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
39%
(0%)
Less than $350 million
36%
(0%)
More than or equal to $350 million but less than $500 million
19%
(0%)
More than or equal to $500 million but less than $650 million
5%
(0%)
More than or equal to $650 million but less than $800 million
1%
(0%)
More than or equal to $800 million
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
83%
(0%)
Less than $1 billion
15%
(0%)
More than or equal to $1 billion but less than $1.2 billion
2%
(0%)
More than or equal to $1.2 billion but less than $1.4 billion
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $1.4 billion but less than $1.6 billion
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $1.6 billion
Confirmed previous forecast
Files