- Updating based on June inflation numbers
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Forecasting Activity
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No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 58 | 58 | 58 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 55 | 55 | 55 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 23 | 23 | 23 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 15 | 15 | 15 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Badge
Star Commenter - Jul 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-5%)
Less than 2.3%
20%
(-30%)
More than or equal to 2.3% but less than 2.6%
80%
(+50%)
More than or equal to 2.6% but less than 2.9%
0%
(-10%)
More than or equal to 2.9% but less than 3.2%
0%
(-5%)
More than or equal to 3.2%
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
- Inflation has been lower than anticipated
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(-20%)
Yes
95%
(+20%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
- Reporting does not indicate this is under serious consideration
Files
Why might you be wrong?
- Unreporting activities may be occurring
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
90%
(+60%)
Yes
10%
(-60%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
- Historically high seizures over last three months
Files
Why might you be wrong?
- May revert to mean
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-15%)
Yes
100%
(+15%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
- Not seeing reporting of a travel surge in July
Files
Why might you be wrong?
- Reporting is missing trends
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-5%)
Yes
100%
(+5%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
- There has been no reported progress
Files
Why might you be wrong?
- There may be some unreported activities occurring
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
98%
(+8%)
Yes
2%
(-8%)
No
Why might you be wrong?
- The weather and fire control efforts could mitigate this
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
90%
(+20%)
Yes
10%
(-20%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
- Wildfires are going strong in several states across the country, providing some anecdotal support for forecasts of an above average fire season: Eg:
- https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/wildfire-grand-canyon-expands-rcna218421
- https://www.9news.com/article/news/local/wildfire/colorado-wildfires-burning-now-july-2025/73-e941d4a0-a176-4222-a8fd-fd23b9911edd
Files
Why might you be wrong?
- Current fires may be controlled soon, acreage burned may not be extensive
Files
Kind reminder that, apart from "some anecdotal support", we also have official data, according to which 781,037 acres have been already burned in July 1-15: https://www.randforecastinginitiative.org/comments/186156
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Why might you be wrong?