dm31415

New polling suggests that the race is tightening. Most likely will still win, but not in 5 rounds.

War with iran supresses any of these chances, but syria is still a non-zero chance.

Not a Chance, a conference committee will take at least two weeks

Not a chance. A conference committee is going to take at least two weeks

We're just considering the gallup poll, which is usually a couple points worse for trump than most polling averages, also, a single poll has considerable sampling error, he's been hovering around 43 percent recently in the gallup poll, I don't expect the fundamental number to change much, but considering how close that is to 45, for a single poll, I'd give it 25% (margin of error around 4 points, so this checks out)

Iran is most likely going to severely restrict natural gas through the straits of hormuz, 3.60 is a reasonable value, not sky high, so guessing that it will be reached

Inflation rate for May was 2.4 percent. Inflation rate usually doesn't change fast, and I think pressure due to tariffs will be a slow burn, companies will raise prices when they absolutely have to as domestic stock decreases, and hold out for lull in the trade war. Iran is going to put huge pressure on oil prices, though I'm sure the US will try to reduce that stress where possible. My money's on a .3 percent increase for each month, so that would bring us to 3 percent. If jobs cool more than expected, maybe inflation will stay about the same, I'll give that a 5 percent chance. Assuming a reasonable variance due to uncertainty, I think this is a pretty good bet.

There have been no polls taken since the debate or when lander was arrested, that being said Cuomo's support is from electorates that are reliable, and aren't neccesarily going to be convinced. Also, lots of young people may rank Mamdani 1st with nobody else. But, lots of uncertainty. I feel like 60/40.