Forecasted Questions
Will Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces retake control over Khartoum city by 31 March 2026?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 02, 2025 06:46PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Dec 02, 2025 06:46PM UTC
(3 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | 3% | +0% | -1% |
| No | 97% | 97% | +0% | +1% |
Will at least two European NATO members sign new, publicly announced major defense procurement contracts (over €1 billion each) with non-European suppliers by 31 July 2026?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 02, 2025 07:29PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Dec 02, 2025 07:29PM UTC
(3 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 20% | 75% | -55% | +5% |
| No | 80% | 25% | +55% | -5% |
Will any country announce a new national carbon tax or emissions trading system by 31 July 2026?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 02, 2025 07:44PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Dec 02, 2025 07:44PM UTC
(3 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 20% | 65% | -45% | +2% |
| No | 80% | 35% | +45% | -2% |
Will the United States government implement new or expanded export controls or restrictions explicitly targeting frontier AI model development by 31 July 2026?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 02, 2025 07:50PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Dec 02, 2025 07:50PM UTC
(3 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 10% | 13% | -3% | +0% |
| No | 90% | 88% | +3% | +0% |
Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 02, 2025 07:53PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Dec 02, 2025 07:53PM UTC
(3 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | Dec 2, 2025 to Jun 2, 2026 | Jan 2, 2026 | 1% | -1% | 0% |
| No | 100% | Dec 2, 2025 to Jun 2, 2026 | Jan 2, 2026 | 99% | +1% | 0% |
How many of the 19 G20 member countries will have recognized the State of Palestine before 1 Feb 2026?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Feb 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 02, 2025 07:54PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Dec 02, 2025 07:54PM UTC
(3 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| 18 | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| 17 | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
| 16 or fewer | 99% | 99% | +0% | +0% |
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 02, 2025 07:54PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Dec 02, 2025 07:54PM UTC
(3 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia | 3% | 3% | +0% | +0% |
| Latvia | 3% | 2% | +1% | +0% |
| Lithuania | 2% | 3% | -1% | +0% |
Will the EU import at least 19 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia in the second half of 2025?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 02, 2025 07:54PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Dec 02, 2025 07:54PM UTC
(3 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| No | 100% | 100% | +0% | +0% |
Will the FDA have authorized a medical device that incorporates LLM-based functionality by 31 March 2026?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 02, 2025 07:54PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Dec 02, 2025 07:54PM UTC
(3 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | 4% | -1% | +1% |
| No | 97% | 96% | +1% | -1% |
Will the Cambodia-Thailand conflict result in at least 20 deaths between 4 November 2025 and 15 January 2026, inclusive?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 16, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 16, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 02, 2025 07:54PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Dec 02, 2025 07:54PM UTC
(3 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | 5% | +0% | +0% |
| No | 95% | 95% | +0% | +0% |