I misunderstood the analysis that @TBall provided. I'm correcting my error. I still think there's a strong possibility that the total goes slightly beyond 1500, but I think that's less likely than it going just shy of 1500.
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| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 76 | 76 | 76 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 74 | 74 | 74 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 24 | 24 | 24 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 1349
60%
(+50%)
Between 1350 and 1499, inclusive
40%
(-37%)
Between 1500 and 1649, inclusive
0%
(-13%)
Between 1650 and 1799, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 1800
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Another breakout could emerge.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 1349
10%
(-68%)
Between 1350 and 1499, inclusive
77%
(+55%)
Between 1500 and 1649, inclusive
13%
(+13%)
Between 1650 and 1799, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 1800
Why do you think you're right?
@TBall provided a persuasive analysis that suggests the likely total will be between 1500 and 1649.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
There are current outbreaks that could push things higher.
Files
We can't see the analysis. But @TBall's latest forecast suggests a 50/50 chance of being above/below 1500: https://www.randforecastinginitiative.org/comments/197936 ; it seems quite far from your 90/10.
Files
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Star Commenter - Aug 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than 600
0%
(0%)
Between 600 and 629, inclusive
30%
(+10%)
Between 630 and 659, inclusive
69%
(0%)
Between 660 and 689, inclusive
1%
(-10%)
More than or equal to 690
Why do you think you're right?
Analysis by @tonio convinced me that I was overestimating, particularly evidence regarding decelerating violence over the month.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I think I'm covering the range of remaining realistic possibilities well. I just don't feel confident enough to land more heavily on either the third or fourth response category.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than 250
0%
(0%)
Between 250 and 349, inclusive
0%
(-15%)
Between 350 and 449, inclusive
95%
(+25%)
Between 450 and 549, inclusive
5%
(-10%)
More than or equal to 550
Why do you think you're right?
There have been 495 attacks reported this month so far. There are two days to go.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I'm not sure what the lag is on reporting. It could be enough to push the total beyond 549.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
97%
(+17%)
Less than or equal to 1
3%
(-17%)
Between 2 and 3, inclusive
0%
(0%)
Between 4 and 5, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 6
Why do you think you're right?
There is only about a month remaining until this question resolves. As @hariseldon has noted, there have only been 3 or 4 times in the past 100 years that more than one major hurricane has made landfall in a month's time, and those instances have happened only during years of high hurricane activity (this year has not proven to be one of those). Thus, I'm going almost all in on ≤1.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
It's the weather.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-14%)
Yes
100%
(+14%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Updating given that there are less than 6 weeks left for this question to resolve.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Something unforeseen and highly consequential may occur. Though, the absence of any recent news hinting at conflict argues heavily against that possibility.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-5%)
Yes
100%
(+5%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
The administration has explicitly positioned itself against AI regulation in its AI Action Plan. I don't see any chance that legislation counter to this position will be enacted in the remaining four months of the year.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I cannot think of a scenario under which this prediction would be wrong.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
1514 as of 9/23.
Why might you be wrong?
If there are some adjustments made after the fact.